Risk Analysis And Control In Prophase Decision Stage Of Large Production Project

This paper encircles the high generation TFT-LCD product line project, in its prophase decision stage, based on project management knowledge, theory and the insights in practical work, starting with the theory of engineering project risk management, we adopt the uncertainty analysis method such as payback period analysis, sensitivity analysis and breakeven analysis firstly, to analyze the impact of uncertainties on the project and rough understanding of the project’s ability to resist risks. Then we adopt risk analysis method including risk analysis, expert investigation, risk probability estimates, to analyze the project’s policy risk, industry&business risk, technology risk and financial risk, to identify and judge the project’s risk factors and risk degree, eventually put forward some feasibility, pertinence and economic efficiency of risk countermeasures.The innovation of this paper is how to systematically analyze the risk in prophase decision stage of high generation TFT-LCD product line, including:research on how to identify, evaluate and react to risk of industry project, elaborate on a better application of risk analysis and uncertainty analysis on major industry project of this kind, and effectively integrating theory and practical project. In this research, the author summarized a set of relatively integrated methods on risk evaluation and decision which meets the needs of practical work, who can provide some reference for early decision stage of similar project in the future.