| There is a saying in China,"what food to man is what grain to food".China is an agricultural country with the largest population on earth. It not only effects the economics, but also brings about political problems to guarantee food security. To totally eliminate food problems, Something must be done to the foundation:food production. The food problem should not exist if the food productivity is high and the supply could meet the demand. The sown area of grain and yield should be kept steady in order to keep the food production stable. The government could give grain subsidy protective price and control the cultivated land area to ensure the sown area, however, the methods above has little effect on per unit grain yield as there are so many uncertain factors, among which the agricultural natural disaster has the largest effect on grain yield. Hence, the study on agricultural natural disaster should be deepened, which helps to make efforts to guarantee food security.The work in this thesis is divided into6parts:The first part is Introduction, which gives analysis of the purpose and meaning of the thesis, the ideas and methods of the study, and at last the content and innovation of the research.The second part is the relevant theories of the research, which include: cost-benefit analysis, Risk preference theory, externality theory, welfare economics theory, Public goods theory and Institutional Economics theory, to prepare for the subsequent study.The third part contains the analysis of the effect of the main natural disaster since the born of the country on the state’s grain production. The factors that effect the variation of the grain yield are first analyzed. Then the extent of the every single factor effect on grain yield is analyzed and confirmed. After that, the hit rates of the main corresponding natural disasters are ascertained. At the end, the effect of the main natural disasters on overall grain production, rice production, wheat production and corn production is given.The fourth part gives the empirical analysis on the effect of natural disasters in some main grain producing area. First, the principle of grey relevance analysis is given. Then the part of rice, wheat and corn which are effected by natural disasters in three provinces are confirmed, and the hit rates of the main agricultural natural disasters are ascertained again. Finally, the relevance degree of rice, wheat and corn yields with the main agricultural natural disasters is analyzed via grey relevance analysis method.The fifth part gives the analysis of grey relational grade of anti-disaster ability in some of the main producing areas..First,we should give the definition of the Elasticity.Then the yields part of the natural disasters and the elasticity of non-disaster rate of major agricultural natural disasters should be used as an adjustment value to assess the anti-disaster ability. Second, we should definite the anti-disaster ability of rice、wheat and corn in the three provinces and analyze the changing tendency of the anti-disaster ability of every crops in each region.Then select the unit area capacity, effective irrigation rate, water-logging control rate per unit area of Drainage and Irrigation as indicators of resilience; Finally, use gray correlation analysis method to analyze the correlation of the various crop disaster resilience and its influencing factors in various regions, and also analyze the information in relevance degree and sequence, to provide scientific evidence on Improvement of the strategic measures of disaster prevention and disaster relief in China’s agricultural production.The sixth part gives the strategic improving measures of disaster prevention and disaster relief in China’s agricultural production. The measures comprehensively include the consideration of the aspects of ecological environment improving, the improving of anti-disaster capacity of grains, the adjustment of agricultural structure and the investigation of the agricultural natural disasters. |
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