Research On The Influence Of Agricultural Natural Disasters On The Comprehensive Ability Of Food Production In China

The comprehensive ability of food production is an important part of a country’scomprehensive national strength, protecting and improving the comprehensive abilityof food has an important significance to food security. Food security related to socialstability and development of the country, in exceptional circumstances,it may be athreat to national security. The report of18th National Congress of CPC pointed outthat to speed up the development of modern agriculture, and effectively enhance theability of comprehensive agricultural production, to ensure national food security andthe effective supply of agricultural. Among the factors which affect thecomprehensive ability of food production, agricultural natural disasters is a specialfactor, it belongs to the non-investment external factors, but its impact can not beignored, the occurrence of agricultural natural disasters will cause a substantialreduction in food production, and bring a negative impact to comprehensive ability offood production, therefore, it is necessary to conduct a study on measures to cope withthe impact of agricultural natural disasters on the ability of food production.This article is in the context of food security, describes the types andcharacteristics of agricultural natural disaster and the connotation of thecomprehensive ability of food production; analyzes the influence mechanism ofagricultural natural disaster to the comprehensive ability of food production at thetheoretical level, and analyzes the topic by using the theory of public goods and cost-benefit; In the support of time-series data of1980-2011and cross-sectional data of2011, the article gives a empirical analysis of the influence of agricultural naturaldisasters to the comprehensive ability of food production by using regression analysis,gray relational analysis assessment and disaster food-loss model, and get the disasterfood-loss rate, and the manner and degree of influence of agricultural naturaldisasters to each input factor of food production; Finally, according to the results oftheoretical analysis and empirical analysis, it gives the corresponding policyrecommendations.