It Project Decision-making And Risk Management Based On Real Option Model Of The Research And Implementation

Different from traditional projects，the IT projects have such many outstandingsas the Multi-target, the high uncertainty as well as high risk characteristics. traditionaldecision-making method come form the traditional projects.so Taking traditionaldecision-making method to evaluate IT project has many their own problems.Real Options Method provides solutions is the extension, expand and deepen ofthe traditional evaluation method,because the formor consider so much on the value oftime that the policy-maker may act according to the different situation to choosewhether continue, defer or cancel the investment at different time. Therefore, RealOptions Method based on IT project can effectively overcome congenital defect oftraditional project decision-making method, making Real Options Method based on ITproject has more flexibility on the traditional evaluation method.In this thesis, the main line of Black-Scholes equations are used to expand, andpoints out that, because Black-Scholes equation with the objectivity of the height, theprice of an option has nothing to do with the risk preference of investors, these innerdetermined the Black-Scholes pricing equation can be a great success. Use Javalanguage design based on physical option IT project decision-making and riskmanagement systems, according to the proposed model theory of project developmentand practice, the SQLServer2005database design and implementation of the project.Finally, based on the real option for IT project decision-making and riskmanagement model the theory analysis and simulation test, and make use of a merger ofexample of IT this theoretical model for analysis. Through the test and example analysis,this paper designed based on the real options IT project decision-making and riskmanagement method can effectively solve the deficiency of the traditional method,which reflects the higher performance, and has good practicability.