Design And Empirical Research On The Supervison Index System Of Network Public Opinion

This thesis is based on the embranchment of Research on supervision and alert mechanism of network public opinion risk, and emphasizes on the construction of the index system on network public opinion supervision and risk warning, in order to assist the government and other operating departments supervising the states’public opinion to construct an effective supervision and alert mechanism of network public opinion risk. This paper adopts the methods of document analysis, interviewing (experts), questionnaire survey, group analytic hierarchy process (group AHP), etc., and formulates the Supervision Index System of Network Public Opinion and the weight of its indicators.Initially, this thesis analyzes the cause and root of network public opinion risk coming into being, and the evolution mechanism of network public opinion risk. On the basis of this analysis, it proposes the Supervision Index System of Network Public Opinion by analyzing the Information Space Model (I-Space) to explore the communication process and origins of network public opinion. This system consisting of subindex of public opinion promulgators, subindex of public opinion essentials, subindex of public opinion receivers, subindex of public opinion transmission and subindex of degree of district harmony reveals the public opinion’s geographic distribution, source, channels of transmission and its character and the response of the public. And then, in view of the real-time supervision, warning and prediction on network public opinion, this thesis discusses the quantization method of each index and relevant calculation formula, in order to achieve a more objective and comprehensive analysis into public opinion. Finally, the thesis computes the weight of each indicator by applying AHP, gives an empirical study on this index system, enumerates the three most influential one-class indexes, subindex of degree of district harmony, subindex of public opinion essentials, subindex of public opinion transmission, and tests the weight by analyzing several emergencies to confirm the practicality and applicability of the weight of this index system.The innovative points of this thesis are in two aspects:For one thing, it discusses the three dimensional structure of network public opinion by analyzing the three axes of I-Space model in order to understand the deep meaning and expression of network public opinion, and to found a credible theoretical basis which substantiates the design of the Supervision Index System of Online Public Opinion, and then proposes the index system based on the systematic analysis of the origins and transmission channels of network public opinion. For another, it proposes the subindex of degree of district harmony, which emphasizes on the influence of district discrepancy when we investigate the possibility of potential societal contradiction breaking out. Also, it gives a quantative analysis and empirical study on the index system based on the consideration into the quantization method of each index and relevant calculation formula, in view of the real-time supervision, warning and prediction on network public opinion.