Prediction Of The Influence Factors Of The Xinjiang Public Health Service Needs And Evaluation Of Supply And Demand Relationship

Objective: To estimate the demand level of future citizens on public hygiene serviceby forecast itself. To find out the discrepancy between supply-demand combined with thefunding conditions in public hygiene organizations. Suitable measures were offeredaccording to the supply-demand gap, aim to strengthen the management and emphasizethe function of public hygiene organizations, so that health system can gradually meet thesatisfactions of citizen’s needs on health through proceeding from the actual situation anddeveloping service capacity scientifically. Methods: It is necessary to forecast by usingthe scientific methods to estimate the developing tendency and determine the quality andquantity of demand on public hygiene service. The forecast methods were analyzed in thispaper against small samples, uncertain and nonlinear problems in filed of demands onpublic hygiene service. Prediction model was found based theories of grey system andtime order. The main influencing factors for demands on public hygiene service werecalculated, including total population, sensitive group of medicine, aging population,pattern transforming of epidemic disease, trend of fatal infectious disease and expenses ofpublic hygiene organizations. Results: In Xinjiang area, the total population, numbers ofsensitive group of medicine, aging population, morbidity of chronic disease (patterntransforming of epidemic disease) are rising rapidly yearly. What’s more, Xinjiang will bein aging society since2015. The trend of serious infectious disease is on a declining curve.However, the total morbidity of infectious disease will keep high. The public hygieneorganizations expense based grey theory may reach around4.329billion Yuan till2015,compared with the amount of4.931billons Yuan based on society demands, there will bea602millions Yuan financial gap. It obviously tells that the growth steps of publichygiene service can not follow the growth steps of demands, due to influencing factors.Demand exceeds supply, which effects the satisfaction of people on this filed. Conclusion:Take proper forecast methods on different objects with feasibility and excellent results.These methods provide scientific basis for completing public hygiene organizations’service items and improving service capacity. So that people can enjoy safe, full-scale,convenient and beneficial public hygiene service. To satisfy public requests on hygieneservice, to ensure people’s life security.