The Impact Analysis And Policy Decision On The Changes Of The Taxi’s Registered Numbers In The Center Cities Of China

Taxi is one of the most active modes of transportation in the central cities of China, and it is an important supplement to the conventional public transport system. Nowadays there are not enough taxi in many central cities, and this restricts the system to play the most cost-effective. The administrators of this industry always feel helpless and bear many questions when they come cross to improve the taxi maintain lever. This dilemma is because of they don’t have scientific quantitative analysis and policy decision methods.This paper tries to solve this problem. It makes a systematic and scientific analysis on the impacts of the change in the taxi’s registered number, including the aspects of the urban road traffic, residents travel and taxi industry itself, and it gives a policy model which taking into account the various stakeholders, trying to eliminate or reduce the adverse effects of the changes in ownership, and guiding the taxi maintain level to a reasonable scale.The analysis indicators involve the road vehicle model proportion, road capacity and delay, the share rate of taxi, the average passenger waiting time, taxi utilization rate and the average taxi profit. In the analysis of indicators’variability, according to the characteristics of each indicator, many methods have been used. For example, a traffic flow simulation program which reflects the taxi movement characters in city road has been writhed to analyze the variability of the road capacity and delay. The convergence of function including a meet function between the customer and taxi, taxi utilization function and customer demand function is been used to analyze the variability of the average passenger waiting time, taxi utilization rate and the average taxi profit.A policy model on the changes of the taxi’s registered numbers is established by using comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, by combining the achievement with the2011Chengdu taxi maintain level and the operational data, a proposal is given for the next change in the taxi’s registered numbers.