Study On Change Simulation And Forecast Of The Construction Land Use Based On Ca-markov

Sustainable land use is the base for the sustainable development of society, andthe change of construction land is the key. At present, under the premise of limitedland resources, high-speed urbanization has led to rapid urban construction landexpansion, cultivated land area reduction and environmental pollution, and so on. Ifthe phenomenon was beyond control and management, not only would it refrain fromdevelopment of both society and economy, but also on the environment of exertingnegative and far-reaching influence. As a country with per capita of scarce landresources, we must distribute the construction land scientific and reasonable, controlthe size of city, and realize the sustainable development of the city. The features ofconstruction land use change are open, nonlinear, uncertainty and dynamic. So, wecannot use traditional methods truly to describe the change of the construction landquantity and the space. More and more scholars have paid close attention to thesubject. However, most of studies focus on choosing large cities as the object of study,research on the country is relatively weak. Meanwhile as China＇s new round of landuse Planning has started, studies on construction land forecast of the counties couldprovide a powerful tool for land planning, management and use, and could providenew ideas for planning and revision.Cellular automata and Markov chain have overwhelming advantage in predictionof urban construction land expansion with disadvantage respectively. Markov model,generated by the combination of the capability of simulating changes in complexsystems of space of CA model land the advantage of quantity forecast of Markov, hasadvantage in attributes of time and space, with temporal and spatial simulation bothquantitatively and geographically. Meanwhile，Markov model also considers theconstruction land use change suitability, and also adequately considers the effect ofnature, society and economy factors about construction land use change, it makes upthe shortcomings about CA and Markov Model do not comprehensively consider the influence of external factors. This paper studied the construction land use change forakesu country which based on selecting the Markov model combined with the GISsoft method, it can use the existing vector data material and improve the accuracy ofresults adequately．This article takes Akesu as an example to study, analysing the construction landuse status and the influence factors of construction land use change and so on. Laid agood foundation for the transition suitability image collection. The transformed areamatrix is obtained with MARKOV module in IDRISI, and suitability image isobtained with MCE module. Distribution of construction land in2015is simulated instudied region. Results indicate that urban construction land in Akesu will expandaround, and the trend among them with northwest expansion is obvious In the space.Because of the west near the wetland park and the south near the basic farmland area,urban construction land boundary expansion will not change significantly. Overall, theurban construction land will close the rapid development in the north, but the trend ofthe development of the combination will be limited in the western and northern south.The result of this study has proved that using CA-Markov in the research ofcounty level construction land use change has feasibility and veracity. According tothe actual situation of the adjustment rules, this measure can be used in the researchother similar area．...