Optimization And Dynamic Simulation Of Dianchi Lake Basin CA-Markov Model Based On Land Use

Due to the rapid urbanization and fast economic development of Kunming City,the conflicts between ecological protection of lake area in the plateau and hugeincrease of land use caused by city expansion become more and more notable. For thepurpose of sustainable development of Dianchi River Basin, the urban land must beallocated in a scientific and reasonable way, and the relationship between ecologicalprotection of Dianchi River Basin and economic construction must be coordinatedeffectively.According to the remote sensing image data of3periods (1988,1998,2008) andthe second national land survey data of Dianchi River Basin, this paper takes theDianchi River Basin as a study area, classifying the land cover situation of the DianchiRiver Basin’s2920km2area into five types: cultivated land, construction land, forestland, water area, the others. Because different vegetation coverage of various forestland types affect the ecological value of study area differently, and forest land is a veryimportant factor in the ecological environmental, this paper uses the method ofsupervision classification and visual interpretation together to read the remote sensingdata of forest land in Dianchi River Basin, sorts out the forest land into coniferousforest, broad-leaved forest and mixed forest and classify the vegetation coverage.As a typical plateau lake basin, the ecological environment protection of DianchiRiver Basin gets more and more attentions. In the final simulation, according torealeted rules and policies, this paper raises a concept of “Water Conservation Districtof Dianchi River Basin” as a special area which prohibites consruction process.Thisarea is able to protect the water enrironment and moderate the relationship between cityconstruction and ecological environment. By using the spatial analysis function of GIS,considering the characters of city land expansion as well as the terrain, traffic,hydrology’s influence on city layout, this paper gets the adapting atlas of land use types;combining with the module of Matlab GM1.1and improved quantity optimization model, this paper establishes scenario setting and quantity control on land use quantitystructure in Dianchi River Basin, and then optimizing the reansonable quantity of landuse structure by setting restrictive condition. The optimized land use structure is morereasonable. The forest land shows a small increase, the coniferous forest area whichhas low vegetation coverage and low ecological services value is reduced, thebroad-leaved forest and mixed forest which have high vegetation coverage and highecological services value are relatively increased; the cultivated land area is alsodecreased slightly, but it can be maintained; the water area can be maintained throughthe acceptance and implementation of “Water Conservation District of Dianchi RiverBasin”; the construction land shows a steady growth by ways of reasonable expansionand invigorating the stock land effectively; the other area reduces accordingly. Thetotal ecological services value of the optimized5land use types in the Dianchi RiverBasin increases2.02%compared with the base year, the total ecological services valueof forest land also increases4.51%compared with the base year.Based on the convert probability matrix inferred from historical period andsuitability evaluation of each land type, this paper uses CA-Markov model in the Idrisiplatform to simulate and predict land use strcture, the simulation results indicate KappaCoefficient is0.8607, which is close to reality. Meanwhile, this paper combines withthe quantity optimization results to adjust the parameters, so as to optimize the land usetypes simulation diagram in the year of2008. This paper puts the quantity optimizationresults into the space location, unifying quantity structure optimization of plateau lakearea land resources and spatial layout, presenting approaches to the future land usemethod and layout of Dianchi River Basin and Kunming.