Evaluation Of Grain Production Status, Trend And Potential In Guanzhong Region,Shaanxi Province

The food problem in Shaanxi province is not optimistic, which means difficulty in foodself-sufficiency and a need of import from other areas. It is necessary to assess the foodproduction situation in this area and meanwhile put forward countermeasures to ensure foodsecurity. Food production history and status in Shaanxi province, and the cultivated land,sowing area, the yield change as well as the affecting factors in the main food productioncounties of central Shaanxi plain were all analyzed in this study. Afterwards, food productionproblems within Shaanxi were cleared and the variation trend of cultivated land area, the grainsowing area and grain yield per hectare in recent years in the central Shaanxi plain wereunderstood. In addition, the main factors restricting food yield increase were determined topredict the grain production level in the next fifteen years in the central Shaanxi plain.Through analyzing the meteorological data in the central Shaanxi plain, the regional change inpotential food production was identified. Rate of exploitation of the production potential wasquantified under the current natural and social conditions. Finally, relevant policy suggestionsto achieve the potential yield of food were put forward in the central Shaanxi plain.The main conclusions are as follows:1. Based on the data from1978to2007, the results indicate that the proportion of grainsowing area in Northeast was rising. It also shows that food production status in the westernregion now has a growing trend, but the percentage of food production in Shaanxi provinceamong the western food production areas is declining. Central Shaanxi plain has anincreasing proportion of wheat supplying (90%) in Shaanxi province. The total yield ratio percapita in the central Shaanxi plain dropped substantially, which will affect food security inShaanxi province. From this perspective, government departments need to pay more attentionto such status.2. The dynamic change in cultivated land resources in Shaanxi province from1991to2009was analyzed. Both total cultivated area and arable land per capita experienced "slowdecrease-rapid decrease-relative stability and slight increase" process. It can be concluded thatimproving agricultural modernization level, adjusting agricultural planting structure andoptimizing the social economic factors are essential means for increasing grain-cropproduction in the central Shaanxi plain.3. Grain demand in Shaanxi province will exceed supply in the future. Until2025grain production will meet medium and low standards. Precisely, food security in Xi'an will be stillan unsafe state and it can meet low standards for Tongchuan in2025. As for Baoji, Xianyangand Weinan, food safety status in2015will meet medium and low standards. After that, grainsecurity in these three regions is stable and it can satisfy people's high standard life.4. Climate production potential of wheat and corn was calculated on the basis of ecologicalzone method from FAO in the central Shaanxi plain. Wheat production potential level islower currently in the central Shaanxi plain, less than30%indicating that there is a greatdeveloping potential. Corn production potential level is relatively higher especially incounties.Soil effective coefficient in the central Shaanxi plain is in the following order: Baoji>Xi'an> Xianyang>Tongchuan>Weinan. Agricultural fixed investment ratio was employedas social effective coefficient in this paper, which is very low in the central Shaanxi plain.The final order is Weinan>Baoji> Xianyang>Tongchuan>Xi'an.Some suggestions and countermeasures were finally put forward in view of some problemsinvolved so as to to better deal with the relationship between resource utilization andprotection.