An Analysis On China's Grain Supply And Demand Comprehensive Balance

Grain is the strategic commodities for national economy and the basic public goody and essential commodities for all members. It also has economic, social cultural ecological and other functional features. Major changes of food production and consumption can trigger large fluctuations and brought chain reaction. With the change of international economic environment, food security issue is pushed to a more necessary degree, which need to be adjusted at any moment. That is the basic purpose of this research, In recent years tight supply and demand relationship in domestic and foreign food market and the continuing overall rising of grain prices has aroused great concern to people. As life necessity and industrial material, grain has been highly regarded at all time. Because of the total output and trade volume of grain in the world have coming stand still, food supply of the world is incredibly out of balance in recent years especially developing countries.This thesis contains six chapters including "introduction-background review-forecast about production and consumption- complication analysis and policy suggestion". The introduction recommends purpose meaning, method and content of the research. The follow chapter forecasts food supply and consumption in 2030. Then the forth chapter discuss the trade. On the base of research ahead, the fifth chapters discuss the affection to food production bout climate circumstance. The sixth chapter is the conclusion, which brings forward the total policies to protect the security.1.The analysis of the grain production was made by adopting the statistical economic model,especially combination forecasting model will be applied to forecast grain production of China in order to make the result exactly.And the model combined time regression model and graylag model.By analyzing different indicators, the author consider that combination forecasting model is superior to the other models in this application. Accordingly, the article made a forecast about the output with different model in the years of 2010-2030 in China.The temperature increased due international community. By using the greenhouse gases emission is the hot topic of IPCC SRES A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios, combined with the social economical scenarios downscaled from the SRES,the grain supply and demand in 2020,2050 and 2080 were simulated and analyzed.The Results show that with the same percentage of plants and planting areas as present,food supply would meet the demand under B2 scenarios, while would not under A2 scenarios.2. Food demand is projected using an income elasticity approach which growth rate of real expenditure is projected and then the growth rate of demand of food commodities is calculated on the basis of estimates of income elasticities.A large number of alternative functional forms are possible for modelling the Engel curve, which is the relationship between food demand and income levels. The double-log specification has been used widely because of its simplicity and readily interpretable properties. Food demand will be estimated separately for urban and rural areas, Separate demand projections are justified for significant variation in food consumption between rural and urban areas because of the rapid growth of the urban population is likely to occur over the next few decades. In order to capture the various consumption responses to income growth, demand projections are made separately for five income groups with each category. Urban income elasticity is projected using median regression model while rural one using the quantile regression model. Average consumption in recent year have been calculated in this way.3. For a country as large as China, changes in supply and demand have significant implications for world markets.After studying the various factors which affect the grain demand and supply, utiliazed the data of grain output and average consumption of1980-2008, calculates the quantity gap of grain supply and demand of the year 2020 to 2030 according to the different population. At present, there exist many problems to be settled urgently in the field of grain circulation for historical reasons and the non-completeness of the current policy. For example:mechanism of grain price is not rational, the management mechanism of government grain reserves is inefficient, the reform of state-owned grain enterprises remains arduous task.4. By statuses of different countries'different industries are decided by variable factors, comparative advantage has decisive function from the view of international division of labor.The chief factors of comparative advantage are gifts of resource and its location while competitive advantage is not only determined by industry-inner direct and indirect factors,but industry-outer business environment factors. China's grain must increasingly enhance their international competitive advantage if they want to make further development. In order to improve their international competitive advantage, the second part provided a comprehensive assessment of China's grain market operation using GARCH modern econometric measures. Through principal component analysis and cluster analysis, A factor analysis model is constructed to analyze variables influencing yield and sown area in food safety. It is revealed that higher grain yield can be best explained by adoption of advanced technologies, followed by material inputs, environment and climate, and policy. In terms of area sown under grain,resource availability and technology play a leading role, followed by comparative benefits and policy.The level of food safety in China is being improved during its fluctuating. The China's food safety are not in a single area but in many areas,where the risks of food safety may occur, such as production, consumption, distribution and trade,the policy of food t should not be a single one but a mix of a basket of policies.To guarantee food safety,we must based on in depth understanding the natural, social and policy, human factors affecting food production,supply and demand and their changes. Persist mainly on the principles of based on self-sufficiency supple-mented by in ports, combining macro-control and market regulation, relying on scientific and technological progress orienting towards both domestic and international markets and resources, constantly improve farmer-benefiting policies and increase the income of the farmers.