Research On Grain Supply-Demand Balance In Jiangsu Province

Food is a valuable resource for human survival, is beneficial to the people’s livelihood of important commodities. Our country has large population but little ground in developing countries, with10%of the world’s arable land to feed accounted for22%of the world’s population, the grain issue, it is economic problem not just, more related to social stability, national long period of stability.This chapter summarizes the scholars on the problem of grain supply and demand on the basis of the research, set up grain demand and supply model with linear regression and H-P filter in Eviews6.0. Which on the basis of grain consumption since1990and production since1949in Jiangsu province. And then predict the future of food supply and demand, systematically analyses the grain supply and demand balance and food safety problem, the grain problem in Jiangsu province to provide reference. In this paper, according to the specific use of food divided into grain ration, feed grain, industrial grain, seed grain and commissariat loss five aspects, and then based on the food consumption data, as well as draw lessons from the relevant scholars on the food needs of the measurement method, build models respectively with the R2value above0.8, and use the models to predict the future grain demand. In the future food demand and supply basis, for future food supply and demand balance undertook an analysis, put forward to ensure the balance of supply and demand, achieve food security policy recommendations. Through the research, obtained the following conclusions:the next time Jiangsu province food consumption still presents growth trend. Future food production presents growth state, the food demand and supply analysis, prediction, that Jiangsu province commissariat basically can achieve balance of supply and demand, in the medium to long term, will be a tight balance between supply and demand trends, somewhat surplus, but also not allow hopeful.