| The grain is so colossal strategic material that grain security is highly concernedby all countries in the world. The food crisis since2006has revealed the importanceof national grain security. China, as a famous developing country in the word, willface severe challenges to take grain security as one of the three economic securities.This paper closely connects with Chinas industrialization, urbanization and grain’sinternational rigid growth of the actual market, and China’s high demand for grainwith low domestic grain production, the tension of the international grain market.Under the guidance of “Decisions of a Number of Major Issues of the CPC CentralCommittee on Promoting Rural Reform and Development”, and “long-term plan ofnational food security”, using statistics, international economics, and othermulti-disciplinary knowledge, this paper forms the points of the tight balance betweengrain supply and demand. The grain supply and demand problems are concernedintensively from the following aspects: basic characteristics of grain supply anddemand, modeling and index calculation of the tight balance between grain supplyand demand, regulation principles and ideas of the tight balance between grain supplyand demand, policy recommendations.The discussion of the conception and the practical significance of tight balancebetween grain supply and demand include three parts. The first part is that the newconcept of dynamic equivalence of grain supply and demand is proposed. It means weshould not only ensure grain security, but also minimized cost the government paidfor the grain security, and ensure that farmers access maximum benefits. We shouldnot only ensure national grain security, but also maximized use of the internationalgrain market by fully introducing international land resources and water resourcesindirectly. We should not only consider the rigidity of the growth in the demand forgrain, but also the volatility caused by natural grain production and market risks, andto maximize the elimination of the imbalances brought about by such a rigid andvolatility. In the second part,combined with the reality of China’s grain market, itanalyzes from both theoretical and empirical aspects analysis the characteristics of therigidity of grain demand, fluctuations in supply, weakness of grain production andprice volatility. In the third part,through the analysis of the domestic and internationalgrain market situation, taking comparative analysis studies, this paper has pointed out that the tight balance between grain supply and demand is to meet the following needs:reducing the price between the industrial and agricultural, raising farmers’ income andnarrowing the gap between urban and rural areas, reducing the cost that Governmentspent on grain security, and effectively using international land and water resources.What’s more important is that we have accepted that the subsides on agriculturalproduction will not exceed8.5%of the gross agricultural amber box subsidies on theoccasion of being adopted as a member of WTO, thus reducing the cost of graincontrol policies has practical significance to avoid trade friction with the UnitedStates and other countries.The discussion of the model and regulation principle about the tight balance ofgrain supply and demand concludes four parts. In the first part,we find that it isnecessary to balance the short-term fluctuations of the grain market and increase thefood supply capacity in the long run for achieving tight balance of the grain. Thisrequires the regulatory of the market and the government is reasonable. The marketshould regulate short-term and minor market fluctuations; the government shouldcombine the actual situation of grain market at home and abroad, make scientificplanning, adjust the supply, the demand and the price of the grain in advance, at thesame time regulate the short-term fluctuations in the grain market.In the secondpart,with summarizing various early warning models of grain security at home andabroad basing on hierarchical dynamic principles, drawing on FAO food securitystandards, I establishes dynamic tight balance model of grain security. The modelsatisfies the formula:LCt-1+LKt-1+△LJt+gt-1×Z－LXt=17%~18%, the grain in tightsupply and demand equilibrium is security, LCt-1represents for the previous year’sgrowth rate of grain production, LKt-1represents the previous year’s rate of grainreserves, LXtrepresents this year’s growth rate of grain consumption,△LJtrepresentsthis year’s net grain-importing rate increments, Z represents the grain price index, gt-1is grain price elasticity of supply index.In the third part,by comparative analysis ofChina’s grain supply and demand conditions and regulatory policies since the1990s,we discover that though our country did not raise the ideas of supply and demandbalance regulation before2005, the fact is that the laws of supply and demand tightbalance play a role all the time.The discussion of the estimation and adjustment of the index of grain securitydynamic tight balance include four parts. In the first part,the various factors to affectthe growth rate of the grain supply are analyzed and the measurement model isestablished to analyze the impact of various factors on grain production. For achieving tight balance of the safe grain supply and demand, the average growth rateof grain production should be measured as1.50%by using historical data. In thesecond part,the factors are analyzed that affect the growth rate of grain demand, suchas the population growth rate, urban population growth rate, per capita income growthrate, oil price index, etc; for achieving tight balance of the safe grain supply anddemand, the average growth rate of grain demand should be measured as1.86%byhistorical data in1986-2008. In the third part,we analyzes the increasing trend of netgrain-aperture ratio, and puts forward the formula measuring the impact of the grainvarieties on net grain-importing rate, and then points that soybean is the importantfactor to increase net grain-importing. The historical data estimates that the averagegrowth rate of incremental net grain-importing is0.32%. The analysis points out thatimproving the capacity of grain import is an important way to ensure China’s grainsecurity in the future.In the fourth part, we analyzes many factors that affect the priceelasticity of grain supply, on this basis, an econometric model is established, whichestimates the elasticity index of grain supply price is0.1221. In the fifth part,weanalyzes the role and impact factors of grain reserves, and estimates the total grainreserve rate is (16~17)%according to the tight balance model and the index value.The discussion of the principles and ideas to ensure the tight balance between thesafe grain supply and demand include eight parts. The first part is the establishment ofregulatory mechanisms of tight balance between grain supply and demand.It requiresthat more grain production is not better in the short term. It needs to take measures forcomprehensive regulation of the grain supply, demand, consumption, reserves, trade,achieve the unification between short-term effects and long-term effects of policy.The second part is the establishment of the regulatory agencies of tight balancebetween grain supply and demand. The analysis points out that the current grainadministration system has some defects in multidisciplinary regulation anduncoordinated muhi-tiered government regulation measures, so co-ordinate regulationmanagement agencies should be established to improve the government’s economicservice functions and the ability to regulate and control. The third part is theestablishment of early warning system of grain supply and demand tight balance.According to the dynamic equilibrium warning model, the system includes theinformation source systems, information analysis system and information feedbacksystem. The fourth part is the construction of the comprehensive grain productioncapacity. The grain production capacity can be stabilized by strict protection andrational use of arable land and water resources, improved by innovating the agriculture organization, reinforced by intensifying the agricultural infrastructure,strengthened by enhancing the construction of the main grain production area, minedby supply the capital goods, protected by defensing agricultural natural disaster,complemented by developing non-grain material resources.The fifth part is that theutilization capacity of international resource must be enhanced. It need to buildcapital utilization platform for promoting the development of the grain industry; buildtechnology utilization platform for promoting the advancement of grain technology;build the platform of resource utilization for effectively using international resources;build risk management platform for effectively resolving the grain security risk. Thesixth part is that the grain market balance ability must be enhanced. The grain securityand risk management system must be created for systematically managing the grainrisks of production, distribution, consumption and other aspects. A diversified grainreserve system should be established for improving the regulatory capacity of thegrain reserves and reducing the cost of adjusting reserves. The construction of grainlogistics system should strengthen for improving the logistics efficiency in which theNorth grains are transported to the south area. The government responsibility systemof grain security should be established for clearly dividing the responsibilitiesbetween the central and local governments. The seventh part is that the ability ofmacro-economic control should be enhanced. Strengthening the joint of horizontaland vertical integration promotes the food industrial management, fairness andefficiency by opposing the monopolization of the market. The measures improving theexpenditure structure of the financial investment, and the mechanism of financialinput, should be done to raise the proportion of agricultural financial investment.Establishing target prices and counter-cyclical subsidy system as the core of the newprice subsidy system, can improve the regulation of grain prices; according toexternal theory of grain production, the use of compensation mechanisms in the grainsales areas should be build by internalization of external effects. The food-savingmechanism should be established and improved by leading the public to adjust thediet, controlling excessive development of grain processing industry, and increasingmeasures to reduce food waste. The eighth part is that food security capacity ofspecial group should be enhanced. Enhancing food security and food availability ofspecial groups are important measures to ensure food security. For this reason, wemust establish the grain security assistance mechanisms of the rural poor, the urbanpoor, the affected groups, and socially vulnerable groups. |
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