Studies On Early-warning Model And Simulation Structure Of Brain Drain In Jilin Province Based On System Dynamics

People are the most important ones in many factors of production. Talents are growing into the most special and valuable resource in current times of knowledge economy. It is well known that, the competition of talent resources is central to the competition of the comprehensive national strength actually. In our country, to explore talent resources, to attract international talents and to educate next generation are arduous tasks nowadays. The development of the economy is restricted by the investment to the talents and human resource within the reach of our country. The development of Jilin province, as the old industrial, affected by a number of factor as reform, policy,fund,history and etc, especially talents which play an important role. Nothing could capture our desire like talents nowadays, human resource and talents are the foundation for the development of our country particularly Jilin province, are the important guarantee and key factor can not be ignored in the development of the old industrial base of Jilin.In recent years, the problem of brain drain has been focused on in Jilin Province, which as a large educational province becoming a large brain drain province. In order to ascertain the reasons for brain drain and to prevent the loss of talent has become a serious problem. However, there are lots of qualitative researches, little quantitative researches, lots of theoretical researches, little empirical researches. For resolving this problem, combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, we use the theory and methods of system dynamics to build a system evaluation model related to brain drain of Jilin province according to the complex Socio-economic system background, at the same time, the big society economy system of Jilin province will be divided into economic, education, social undertakings and population subsystem, each subsystem will be studied carefully. Four main causal chains have been studied out according to the study of these subsystems. After that, relevant data is being collected by ways of searching literature, investigation, mathematical statistics, and mathematical deduction. We make use of Vensim software platform and branch vector determinant feedback loop method to calculate, establish the early warning simulation model of brain drain, list more than 70 variables of rate, state and initial, build more than 60 equations of linear and nonlinear, analyze the feedback loop of the model, furthermore, several typical SD-based model have been acquired, putting dynamic complexity and dynamic feedback vertical level analysis into practice. On this basis, we forecast the date of brain drain from 2004 to 2024 and analyze the main indexes of the simulation results, judging present situation, making a limit of warning indexes, monitoring brain drain in Jilin province. We obtain 20 years date of brain drain in Jilin province via simulating in long term, on the authentic date basis, compare different results under different investment policy and find out the optimal investment plan, make sure we can reduce the loss of talented people as more as possible. In the end, we give relevant policy recommendations which may serve as a guideline for the decision-making of the government.The thesis of system dynamic provides a brand new methodological way for "warning of brain drain", according to this tool, we can easily estimate the trend of brain drain, prove the effectiveness.