High-tech Enterprise Financial Crisis Warning Empirical Research

High-tech industries play an increasingly significant role in the national economic development process. The high-risk nature of high-tech enterprises means that their production and business activities will be faced with many uncertainties; these factors give the production and management of high-tech enterprises constitute obstacles and difficulties which will affect their survival and development, and increase the possibility of a financial crisis.In the theory part of this paper, the general theory basis of enterprise financial crisis was described. The theory on cycle fluctuations of enterprise growth is the premise of early warning crisis. The progressiveness of enterprise financial crisis make the early warning meaningful. And the effectiveness of financial indicators provides the possibility of the early warning. Because the high-tech enterprises have some special characteristics compared to the traditional companys, we ananlyzed the financial risk of the high-tech enterprises and prompt the conduction mechanism of these financial risk.In the empirical part, 80 A-share listed high-tech enterprises of Shenzhen and Shanghai were chosen; 22 primary financial early warning indicators were selected; the principal components analysis and binary logistic regression were combinedly used to build early warning models. The empirical results show that: the financial early warning model specifically for high-tech enterprises can effectively improve the rate of correct discrimination. The rate of correct discrimination of T-2 year early warning model reached as high as 93.8%. Among the indicators, profitability and cash flow are the most discriminant capacity ones; and the indicators of growth have also found effective. Being different from the early warning model for common enterprises, information for early warning contained in the data of T-3 year is not high.