| On October 30, 2009, the first batch of 28 companies in shenzhen stock exchange listed on the GEM(Growth Enterprise Market) in China, since then the GEM officially started. However, with the rapid development of China’s economy, the more uncertainty factors in the field of economy increase,and the GEM listed companies more than some high-tech, high-risk characteristics of growth companies, these companies want to market in a rapidly changing economy a stable foothold in the tie, to achieve sustainable development, the establishment of an financial early-warning system will be very important.To strengthen finaneial crisis waming and Prediet foture finaneial status of gem comPanies, for both the operators, investors, creditors and other stakeholders is very important.In this paper, from domestic and foreign scholars on the basis of the motherboard market and the small board on the financial early warning research by analyzing the differences between the motherboard market and GEM market place, according to the characteristics of the GEM put forward the definition of the gem enterprise financial crisis situation,the delisting System of GEM, implemented on May 1, 2012, is used to be thedistinguishing standard between financial crisis companies and financial health companies, then 36 GEM companies are selected for the financial crisis companies.As pairing companies, 36 GEM companies are selected for the financial healthcompanies.This paper broke the previous financial indicators using only a single financial or a non-financial indicators of early warning model approach, but to establish an early warning system variable contains both financial indicators and non-financial indicators.Paper were screened out of the 16 financial indicators variables and four non-financial indicators variables, first using the principal component analysis, the 20 warning variables transformed into six main components. Then choose the binary logistic regression model to the above six main ingredients of the explanatory variables, or health crises are explanatory variables for the establishment of early warning models,andShowed a good early warning capability. Meanwhile, the test sample data into the model, also showed good predictive ability, proved that the early warning model can forecast the financial position of the gem listed companies,with practical application. |
