High-Tech Industries Finance Early Warning Research Based On Cash Flow

With the global economic integration, economic development of internationalization and increasingly market-oriented, in the context of the rapid development of science and technology, national open-door policy support and a large number of foreign investment, China's high-tech enterprises to grow up quickly and have become an important pillar of economic growth force. On the other hand, the acceleration of technological upgrading has made high-tech product life cycles becoming shorter and shorter, high-tech enterprises and therefore faces enormous pressure on the survival and development. The financial risks faced by the enterprises gradually increased and the financial risk due to loss of control led to operating in crisis or even bankruptcy of the number of companies are on the rise. Many listed companies, due to poor management, declining performance of the company, there has been a loss, financial situation even more serious abnormal situation, eventually receiving special treatment, or face the danger of delisting. In order to avoid or defuse the financial crisis, corporate finance should be established early warning systems to detect warning signs and early warning signals of potential danger to inform the enterprises are facing the operators, so that it take appropriate early warning measures.The cash flow information received the universal attention in the resent year, the cash flow has been possible to synthesize the reflection enterprise profit to realize in the degree as well as the fund operation risk. Domestic and foreign had the research to indicate that has a more remarkable difference with the cash flow related financial norm in the normal enterprise and between the financial crisis enterprise. Compare with the foundation financial early warning target, which has the system with the tradition take the power and responsibility. "Realizes the system take the receipts and disbursements" to be able to reflect the enterprise actual state of operation as the foundation cash flow target.This is a high-tech enterprise financial early warning system specification research, the paper first introduced the concept and the characteristic of the high technology and new technology enterprise and the cash flow. Starting from the analysis of the impact of financial risk factors of high-tech enterprises, Through the introduction of cash-flow management as well as traditional financial indicators and indicators of cash flows for integrated comparative analysis to build a high-tech enterprise financial evaluation index system of early warning based on the cash flow target primarily, has given dual attention to the traditional property and the profit class target. Carries on screening through the principal components analytic method to the financial norm, Has established the high technology and new technology business finance early warning model through logic regression analysis. In the real diagnosis part, this article selects 56 A going on the market the high technology and new technology enterprise Shanghai and Shenzhen (28 ST Corporation and 28 non-ST Corporation) and 15 primary election finance early warning target, Has carried on the enterprise by the ST processing previous three year data modelling analysis. The real diagnosis result indicated that the T-3 year, the T-2 year, the T-1 year's data determination rate of accuracy respectively is 76.75%,83.9,87.5, that means more approaches by the ST processing, the financial risk is been bigger that has proven the research validity. Finally to propose some countermeasures aimed at the high technology and new technology business finance risk the guard.