| At21st century, the global economy competition has gradually evolved intohigh-tech competition. Relying on the high-tech industries to develop national economyhas become the consensus of all countries in the world. In2013, the high-tech industrieshave into the “12th five-year plan†period, and issued a series of preferential policies topromote its rapid development, but inevitably, the high-tech manufacturing industrieswill face many risks and uncertainties in the process of development. Mainly reflectedin the life of the product cycle is short, the intense market competition, high-risk R&Dinvestment levels, and ST of high-tech manufacturing sector from2011-2014isshowing rising trend year by year. To avoid risks and prevent the happening of financialcrisis, the high-tech industries should establish the financial early warning system;managers can adjust the decisions timely according the danger signals, formulatescientific measures and play the role of nip in the bud.Firstly, to analyze the trade high-tech manufacturing industry, and discuss thenecessity of financial crisis warning.Secondly, on the basis of risk management, crisismanagement theory, asymmetric information theory, signaling theory, principal-agenttheory to analyze the financial crisis warning. Then on the basis of comprehensivenessprinciple, relevance principle, comparability principle, maneuverability principle, thispaper has selected the profitability, debt paying ability, operation ability, developmentability, and cash flow capacity, at the same time, according to the characteristics ofhigh-tech industries, joined the research and innovation capacity indicators, reflected inthree aspects, namely the ratio of R&D expenditure, as well as the number of authorizedpatents and the ratio of high-tech talent.In this paper, empirical study was conducted based on the theoretical analysis. Theselection is A share of high technology manufacturing listed companies, and accordingto the principle of similar industry segment and size, matching19ST and19non-STsamples, the main factors of t-1, t-2, t-3respectively as explanatory variables toconstruct the binary logistic regression model. And obtained good warning effect, in t-1,the predictive accuracy is94.7%, in t-2, the predictive accuracy is86.9%, in t-3, and thepredictive accuracy is81.6%. Regression results found that: the number of authorizedpatents and the ratio of R&D expenditure showed significant negative correlation withthe financial crisis, but the relationship of the ratio of high-tech talent and financial crisis is not significant. |
