| In recent years,while a large number of enterprises are listed on the Chinese market,more and more enterprises are forced to go bankrupt.The deepening globalization process,severe economic situation and fierce market competition make enterprises face increasing pressure.Finance is the lifeblood of the enterprise,which is the fundamental and guarantee for the survival of the enterprise.Financial crisis means that enterprises are facing the risk of bankruptcy,which will not only cause losses to the business operators,but also affect the interests of investors.It will even have an impact on upstream and downstream enterprises.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to pay attention to the financial situation of enterprises and give scientific financial warning.In this paper,a total of 17 financial index from the four aspects of debt paying ability,operating ability,profitability and growth ability,as well as 5 non-financial indicators from the three aspects of performance evaluation index,litigation and arbitration index and risk evaluation index were selected to construct the index system.Based on the A-share manufacturing listed enterprises of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges,43 enterprises that were warned by the delisting risk in 2018 were selected as the *ST group,and the same amount of financially normal enterprises were randomly selected as the Normal group.Divide training and test groups with a ratio of 7:3.After the missing value processing of the data,the index are tested for significance,the insignificant index are eliminated,using principal component analysis for data dimension reduction,and then based on the data after the dimension reduction,the SVM model,the Logistic model,the "series" SVM-Logistic combination model and the "parallel" SVM-Logistic combination model are established respectively.Finally,the comparison of the prediction results of the four models is carried out.The empirical results show that: in terms of index variables,the profit factor has the greatest impact on the model,which is also in line with the goal of maximizing the interests of enterprises.They should pay more attention to this aspect of index,find problems in time and take corresponding measures.As far as the model is concerned,the prediction accuracy of the combined model is higher than the single model,and the stability is good.The SVM-Logistic model of the "parallel" combination method has higher classification accuracy and more stable classification effect than the "series" SVM-Logistic combination model.Enterprises can pay more attention to the application of combined models in financial early warning.Different models can be tried to combine in various combinations to achieve better prediction results. |
