Research On Production Purchasing Demand Forecasting In Automobile Manufacture Enterprise Under SCM

In the past ten years, the entire automobile industry displays a series of obvious development trend under the market intense competition and surplus productivity,such as, the profit reduces, the price declines,the complexity of product increases,the cost of research and development rise,the enterprise reorganize and the annexation is unceasing,and so on. Facing these challenges, the automobile manufacture enterprise must shift the risk, and at same time cooperates with upstream the supplier and the downstream dealer, and get the win-win.The supply chain management study begin for several years.It is a network architecture management pattern that base on core enterprise,join the whole units including the supplier, the manufacturer, the distributor, the retail merchant until the the end-user through the information flow, the logistics flow and the fund flow.This paper utilizes elementary theory and the method of the marketing theory, the logistics management and the manufacture management. make a systematically analysis on production purchasing demand forecasting in automobile manufacture corporation under SCM.The paper includes six chapters:The first chapter is the summarize part. At first, discuss the purpose,aim and the significanceof of this research.Then make an analysis on the present stage, the level and the existence issue in domestic and foreign research.Finally, make the research goal,the content and the key issues which should be solved.The second chapter reseach on the basic theory and the character of supply chain management and the demand forecast. Define the SCM, discuss the structural model, the management goal and the difference between traditiona channel management and SCM. Then introduce the importance of demand forecasting and detail the four quantitative approachs:The motion average, the index method, the return analytic method and the time sequence method. Finally make comparative analysis on the four forecast methods.The third chapter mainly analyse the characteristic of supply chain in automobile industry. Firstly, analyzes the evolvement progress of supply chain from the sales era, the purchase era to the massively customization manufacture era. Production Purchasing demand is one form of purchase type, simultaneously a part of purchase management in automobile manufacture enterprise. Automobile part purchase has its own unique characteristic under the supply chain management. The fourth chapter analyse the factor which influnce the material demand forecasting, including MPS, the stock,the lead time,BOM and so on. Set up a feasible analysis model jointed with information system.The fifth chapter reseach base on the analyses and the establishment model in the above several chapters.Firstly, set up supposition premise, and then simulates the case anaysing the whole forecasting process from the order, the market forecasting, data disposed in computer systerm.The sixth chapter introduce the factors we should pay attention to in actual forecasting and the expectation for the demand forecasting research in the future .