Supply Chain Management, Demand Forecasting Model Of Research And Practice

With the globalization of sales and markets, business competition gradually changed from single enterprise level competition to competition among supply chains. Many modern enterprises implemented Supply Chain Management to reduce production costs and increase profits.The so-called "forecast", is to simulate the most possible future status and future situation based on historical data and other information. There is an urgent need to strengthen demand forecast ability. Demand forecast is also the basis and starting point for Supply Chain Management.Schick is a world famous manufacturer of personal care products. Manugistics is a global software provider which is famous for its Supply Chain Management Solution. Schick implemented the Demand Forecasting Module of Manugistics Supply Chain Solution, and the author was deeply involved in this project. This paper is based on the practical experience gained in this project.As part of the business tasks the author did in this project, he analyzed the supply chain structure of the product hierarchy and business model of Schick's business approach. The author redesigned the business flow of demand forecast procedure in Schick to improve efficiency and accuracy, in the meantime he introduced several mathematic models (Fourier, MLR and LEW) which are commonly used, analyzed the different customers, life cycle and market environment of each product, and selected different forecast model for each product according to their special characterize.As to the technical part, the key of this project is to design and develop a Data Integration System, to facilitate the data exchange between Demand Forecast System and other legacy systems. The author described the system design of this system in this paper and introduced how to implement the design with ECI (Enterprise Content Integration) tool WebConnect, and how to centralize, schedule, manage and monitor all the programs and interface within the enterprise with Control-M.During the implementation process of Demand Forecast System, the author successfully integrated the mathematic models and other related theories into the actual...