The Research On The Supply-demand Situation And Developing Trend Of Oil Industry In China

Oil is important energy which associated with the rest and daily life of people, it directly impacts on the level of industrial modernization and economic development. Meanwhile, oil plays a key role in national strategic plan and the stability of military and political as an important strategic resource. Therefore, this paper from the study of oil supply and demand in China, analyzes the development trend of China's petroleum industry, and proposes measures to ensure that energy and economy of china will develop continuously, stably and healthily, the national military and political will be stable.Firstly, this article is based on the data of Chinese petroleum industry supply and demand of years, while it analysis the composition of demand for the oil industry, and the several stages of development which oil industry has experienced and the phase characteristics of each stage, meanwhile, and summarizes the main factors of oil supply and demand. The study finds that the contradiction of oil supply and demand gradually emerges after China became a net importer from 1993, the oil production grows slowly, but oil consumption grows rapidly, and sum up that Chinese oil industry is facing a situation of imbalance between supply and demand.Secondly, as the system of oil supply and demand is complex, influenced by many factors in different periods,and different forecasting method or model to forecast the amount of oil supply and demand in different periods have their advantages and disadvantages,therefore, this paper forecasts Chinese oil supply and demand into two parts, the short-term and long-term. And this paper select the trend extrapolation method to forecast the Chinese oil demand and supply in short-term. In clarifying the principle of the model and calculates with the formula, the gap of Chinese oil demand and supply will be apparent for the near future, in 2014, Chinese oil demand will be the twice of the supply and demand gap will reach 257 million tons, oil consumption will largely depend on foreign imports.Thirdly, this paper selects the gray prediction which is suitable to forecast supply and the multiple linear regression which is suitable to forecast demand in long-term to forecast future oil supply and demand in China in long-term. After clarifying the principles of the two models and calculating with the formula, this paper sets out the prediction of Chinese oil supply and demand for the next 21 years. This paper calculates based on data of forecast future oil supply and demand, it sets out that the gap between Chinese oil supply and demand will accelerate continually in long-term,in 2030, Chinese oil supply will be only 27.5% of demand, the gap between supply and demand will be up to 72.7 million tons. Such a serious imbalance of supply-demand will be a serious threat to Chinese economic development and stability of defense.Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures, suggestions and strategic positioning from the demand, supply and other aspects respectively, in order to provide some reasonable suggestions on the future development of Chinese oil industry. Specific recommendations are as follows:establish a sound strategic oil reserve system, diversification oil import channels, to develop alternative energy sources, improving efficiency in the use of oil resources, appropriate industrial restructuring, establish and improve oil-related legal and regulatory sectors of oil, introduce and develop Oil futures early.