| Since our reform opening, our country has achieved a great development. Our development of industrialization is much faster. And the economic structure has also changed a lot. Our people's life level has improved so much. As a result, our vehicle industry has got the chance to grow fast with the traffic development. Our vehicle industry is becoming the one of the leader industry gradually.Our vehicle industry has development nearly fifty years. Especially from 1978, it has developed so fast. Because our economic fast development supplied the right time and big market for the vehicle industry.The fast development of vehicle industry has brought the chance for the vehicle producers. But how could we make decisions for the future development? If we could know the demand and supply for future vehicles, we would make the right decisions. According to the research from domestic to abroad, our papers proposed the method of forecasting the demand of vehicle population and analyzed the difference between the demand and supply of vehicle population.The automotive industry is not only one of the most important parts in our domestic economy, but also influences many concerned industries, like steel industry. At the same time, it will exhaust a lot of energy from production to consumption. So, there is very easy to anticipate the vehicle population. And we choose 5 factors which influence the vehicle population most as the forecasting factors and multi-linear regression model. Through that model, we get the model of forecasting of vehicle population and forecast the number of vehicles from 2007 to 2017. Then, we get the demand of vehicles by forecasting vehicle scrap rate.Through analyzing the difference between the demand and supply of vehicles, we find the reason for the difference and propose some methods to reduce the difference. Finally, we propose some suggestions for the vehicle producers to adjust their development strategy. The innovation:First of all, we propose the general length of road, the number of transporting people, the number of our population, the investment on fixed asset and the rate of city on our country as the forecasting factors. And we forecast the vehicle population from 2007 to 2017 by use of multi-linear regression model.Secondly, through calculating the vehicle scrap rate, we get the demand of vehicles from 2007 to 2017.Finally, we have analyzed the difference between the demand and supply of vehicles. And we take the cars as an example to analyze. Furthermore, we divide our country into 6 vehicle industrial area and analyze 5 of them.But at the research above, we must realize that the factors which influence our vehicle industry are not simple. It concerns many areas like government policy. So, this paper just proposes some research method and gives the other researchers one reference. |
