Research On The Feasibility Of International Trade To Achieve Balance Between Supply And Demand Of Wheat

Wheat was a staple crop in China. Since the founding of the People's republic of China, wheat production in China had experienced four important stages of development: the unsteady development ,steady growth, down to adjust and return to growth, China had become the largest producer of wheat in the world, the annual output of wheat was more than 100 million tons. Wheat production in China accounts for 16.3% of total production in the world with the only 11.0% acreage, which made important contributions to development of wheat production in the world. The features of wheat production in China are regionalization, specialization, and industrial management. The result indicated that the Huang-Huai-Hai region, Northwest Territories, Tibet and parts of the Yangtze River has a comparative advantage in producing wheat. To increase wheat production in the future, it is necessary not only to pay attention to the areas which have traditional comparative advantage in producing, such as Henan Province, but also to support and rely on Anhui, Jiangsu and other new areas of aggregated advantage in producing wheat.According to the characteristics of various prediction methods,Cobb-Douglas model and GM (1, 1) were used as a combined model to predict the yield of wheat. The results indicated that annual output would increase from 2010 to 2020, and annual output of 2015 and 2020 would reach 123.94 and 137.29 million tons respectively. Based on the authority of wheat demand forecasting research, taking into account the characteristics of research methods and research findings, the average demand of predicting values was used as the future demand for wheat in China. The results showed that Chinese wheat consumption would continue to increase, annual demand of 2015 and 2020 would reach 130.01 and 136.70 million tons respectively. Imbalance between Production forecast and Demand forecast was the Shortfall of wheat in the future. The results showed that, there was a shortfall in the next decade in china, but this gap was in a decreasing trend, the number of gap was 6.07 million tons in 2015, however, there was no shortfall in 2020, but the Surplus of 59.1 tons.To fill the"shortfall of wheat" was practicable by using international markets. From the perspective of the availability of wheat: wheat trade volume was sufficient in the world, the volume of wheat trade would continue to increase, which was proved by Holt exponential smoothing model. Based on the analysis of yield fluctuation correlation between the major wheat exporter counties and China, The results showed that the wheat imported from international market was secure, In order to establish a diversified, complementary output fluctuations sources of imports, France and Argentina should be listed as the exporting countries to China. From the perspective of economic viability: China has sufficient economic capacity to import their requirements of wheat from the international market, our country's economic interests and social welfare would be increased by using of the international wheat market.International prices would not be impacted by using of the international market to fill "the production shortfall" of wheat in China. According to the characteristics of the various stages of wheat imports share of total world imports, the correlation coefficient of wheat imports and the international wheat market price was calculated, and then using Granger test to check the relationship between the international price and wheat imports, it was showed that when annual proportion of China's wheat imports reached 5.05%, the imports would lead to increase the international prices. China's annual share of world wheat imports would be kept between 3% and 4% in the next decade, Referencing to historical experience, wheat prices would not be affected with the proportion of such imports.