Research On Oil Supply And Demand In Our Country Based On Combination Forecast Model

Since 1983, China’s oil supply improves slowly, but demand for oil is rapidly improving, and this gradually produced a huge gap between oil supply and demand, which has a serious threat to China’s oil security. The concern of the international community to the global climate change has affected the high carbon energy supply and demand of oil, and China conforms to the development of low carbon economy requirements to make new requirements of supply and demand for oil. Based on the realistic background of the development of China’s oil industry, the role of oil supply and demand prediction in oil security planning and preparation of the oil industry development planning is becoming more and more prominent.Take support vector machine(SVM) model, BP neural network model and simultaneous equation model as the main body, take the oil supply and demand as the research object, take the dynamic of the model and the item of supply and demand as the target, and reasonably arrange the order and combination of the model to construct combination forecast model. Take the multivariate mean inference method as the theory method, combine the data of the combination forecast model and infer the data of the model to construct data stability evaluation method. Then, combined with the data of China’s oil supply and demand from 1965 to 2012, check the validity of the established model and evaluation approach, and predict the quantity of oil supply and demand in China from 2013 to 2022. After that, evaluate the combination forecast model and the stability data inference method, and come to the suggestions by the prediction results of oil supply and demand in our country. Finally, reach the conclusions through the whole article.