Study On The Risk Evaluation Of AMS Project

AMS'(Advanced Manufacture System) development and application has gradually become an important way for enterprises to establish and maintain a competitive position nowadays.However, compared with other projects,AMS project has a long life cycle and requires large number of money, so,its risk is higher. Even worse, it would cause tremendous losses to enterprises once it fails.Therefore, risk evaluation becomes more and more concerned by decision-makers.The study on the risk evaluation of AMS project is less developed than other general projects'risk evaluation. Although some scholars have brought it on to discuss,it has not been concerned enough, and AMS project's risk evaluation indicator system construction is also obtained from the experience of general projects'risk evaluation. So it is not that precise and targeted. Even more, the evaluation method is too single. Therefore, it is extremely necessary to have a more detailed and systematic study on AMS project's risk evaluation.This paper applies Engineering Economics,Systems Engineering, Management Statistical and other multi-disciplinary knowledge, uses quantitative and qualitative analysis,linking theory with practice to analyze the existing problems on AMS project's risk evaluation. Firstly, the paper analyzes the AMS project's characteristics by comparing with AMS and traditional manufacture system:AMS project decision-making is a multi-objective nature of strategic decision-making, multi-system decision-making,and draws the conclusion that the AMS project'risk is extremely high and must be evaluated. Then, on the basis of the literature research, this paper concludes the considerable risk factors for AMS project by the questionnaires-survey and clusters them in cluster analysis, then,builds up a index system. This system includes five indexes.They are the technology risk, the managers risk, the financial risk, the organization risk and the external environment risk. So,According to the AMS project' fuzzy and "gray",the paper constructs the model of Fuzzy-Gray comprehensive evaluation to evaluate AMS project'risk at the innovative place.Last but not least, this paper sets Shenzhen Zhong Jing Lin Nan Co.Ltd as an example to evaluate the risk of its AMS project and give some suggestions.This paper offers reference to enterprises to reduce the loss of investment risk. It is practical and operational.