Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Analysis For Multi-Project Risk On Time-varying Universe

The process of risk management is the process of project management.With the rapid development of economy,enterprises started the multi-project process.There are much more uncertain factors and the mutual influence factors between each project in multi-project management.Therefore,multi-project risk management is the focus on the future direction of the enterprise.The information of risk factors impact on the project and the risk degree of project at various stages is fuzzy and uncertain,these information cannot be calculated by accurate numerical numbers and symbols,and it's usually expressed by natural language.But the linguistic dynamic systems based on word computing can be effectively used for this kind of information.The paper provide a reliable calculation method for the multi-project risk assessment and risk selection policy to deal with the state,which analysis and modeling multi project risk management,according the theory of interval type-2 fuzzy sets under time-varying universe.Firstly,the thesis summarizes the process of the risk of project management and the theory it used,and the relative knowledge of type-1 fuzzy sets,type-2 fuzzy sets,then we outlines the linguistic dynamic systems,computing with words,and its classification calculation,and elaborate the theory of time-varying universe and so on correlation theories knowledge.Secondly,it established the project risk management model,and determine the risk evaluation index system and decision method of multi project priority based on the model,then combining with the theory of time-varying field,and the influence degree of each risk factors impact on different stages can be given.Thirdly,based on interval type-2 fuzzy Sets,using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method analysis aims to evaluate the different stages of project risk degree,get the linguistic dynamic orbits of project risk degree.And combine with example to analyze and calculate.Finally,according to the different risk degree gives a specific response measures.This paper presents a method of using interval type-2 fuzzy under the theory of time-varying universe to modeling and assessment the risk factors and its influence degree on time-varying universe the multi project management is the inevitable tendency in the development of project management,however the influences of the risk factors in the project,its degree is fuzzy,and the risk level of different project stage is in different degree,so linguistic dynamic systems and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are more suitable to solvethis problem.At the same time,as the time-varying universe is variable,enhance the adaptive ability of that method,which reasoning ability is more accurate.