| After the successful hosting of the 2008 Olympic Regatta,2014 Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition will be the highest specification and most affecting international event. This is the first time that Qingdao hosts the high-level word wild Horticultural Exposition. The construction of International Horticultural Exposition Park has the characteristics of large investment, international influence and long construction period, it’s a complex engineering. Meanwhile, during the period, it faces risks from aspects of the process of its construction and operation, and how to choose the correct evaluation of method to identify the risks and propose the corresponding prevention measures directly affect the display result of the Word Park, also impact on Qingdao’s economic development and China’s national image. Therefore, this paper studies the risk evaluation of Qingdao International Horticultural Expo Park construction project has important guiding significances.The main content of this paper is to evaluate the risk of Qingdao International Horticultural Expo Park construction project. Firstly, the paper introduces the status of risk evaluation in international and domestic, and theoretical basis of Horticultural Expo Park construction project, including the concept and methods of the project risk evaluation, the characteristics of the International Horticultural Expo Park. Then, the third part of the paper describes the details of the Qingdao Internationa] Horticultural Exposition Park project risk assessment, including the external conditions of the project, the construction scale, the status and forecast of Qingdao tourism market development. The fourth part bases on the principles and purposes of the risk evaluation, using a variety of methods to identify the project risk, and ultimately to determine the risk of external conditions, market risk, liquidity risk, project management risk and social risk.And it contains five first ranking risks and a number of secondary risks. The fifth part, firstly, according to the last part of the conclusion to establish Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition risk index system, and then use a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method to quantify these indicators of risk and assign weights.Finally, do the comprehensive evaluation of the project risks. The risk assessment concluded that the Qingdao International Horticultural Expo construction projects wholly in the general risk and lower risk, the project construction is feasible. But the market risk and capital greater risk is high. The part also proposes the corresponding preventive measures for each risk. In the end, the paper says the conclusions of the research, and points out the inadequacies of the study as well as in-depth study in the future direction.Through the risk assessment of the Horticultural Expo Park project, the paper constructs the project risk evaluation index system and risk evaluation model, and also apply it to the project in the Qingdao International Horticultural Expo park infrastructure (adjusted), it has great points for preventing the risk and provides some guidance. |
