Analysis Of Vehicle Emission Inventory And Its Uncertain Under Two Scales

With the development of china’s rapid economic, and the improvemet of people’squality of life, the vehicle number increased fast, so vehicle emission became one ofthe most important source for air pollution, and this brought huge challenge toenvironmental governance. This study was based on the differences of inventorymethods between province scale and city scale, with the area of Guangdong provinceand Foshan city. The paper calculated the inventorys with Annual Mileage Methodand Source Intensity Method, used vehicle emission model COPERT and the basedata from traffic management department and field survey, and analyzed theinventory from a different perspective. Finally calculated and analyzed the uncertainof vehicle emission for province scale and city scale with the method of Monte Carloanalysis.For the vehicle emission factors and inventory of Guangdong province, thevehicle population increased between2006and2012, and the increasing rate of lightpassenger car in Pearl River Delta (PRD) region was higher than Non-Pearl RiverDelta (Non-PRD) region, but the rate of motorbike was opposite. The emission factorof CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5in the two regions decreased, and the various of emissionfacters were different for different vehicles. In PRD region, the increasement of COand VOC emission was slower between2006and2012, and the most contributionsource of CO and VOC were light passenger car and heavy passenger car; inNon-PRD region, most contribution sources were motorbike and light passenger car.For NOXand PM2.5, heavy passenger car, heavy truck and light truck were the mostcontribution source.This study used the method of Monte Carlo analysis to calculate the vehicleemission uncertain of Guangdong province in2012. The result showed that theuncertain of CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5emission inventory for PRD region were[-53.62%,7.40%]、[-53.68%,78.98%]、[-66.97%,121.34%]、[-70.96%,131.01%]respectively, and which of Non-PRD region were [-87.85%,232.09%]、 [-76.64%,192.91%]、[-54.30%,84.79%]、[-59.25%,89.45%] respectively. The mostcontribution source of uncertain in the two regions were light truck and heavy truck.For the vehicle emission inventory of city scale, in the year of2012, the CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5inventory of Foshan city were192334.59、34588.51、38527.33、1403.01tons. The most contribution source of CO and VOC were motorbike and lightpassenger car, and which of NOXand PM2.5were heavy vehicle and buses. The ChinaⅠ, China Ⅱ emission standard vehicles contributed the most emission. Primaryroad and branch road were important source of CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5, and highwaywas the most contribution source for NOX、PM2.5. The top emission period of24hours in Foshan were7to9and17to19. For high resolution of3mils3milsemission, urban was the most contribution area for CO and VOC, and for NOXandPM2.5, the most contribution area were urban, the national road and highway.The apper calculated the vehicle emission inventory uncertain of Foshan city in2012, the result of CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5were[-62.58%，74.23%]、[-58.08%，63.85%]、[-55.45%，67.24%]、[-56.16%，66.32%] respectively, and the most uncertainsource of CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5emission were the national road, branch road,sub-arterial road and major road.