Scenario Simulation Of Land Use Spatial Pattern Based On CLUE-S Model

As the core content of land use and land cover change, the land use change simulation has been concerned by the academic circles.Researching the change simulation of land use by constructing the reasonable model, we will have a deeper understanding for the change process of land use, at the same time, it can provide a certain reference for the regional land use planning and the development policy of land use.This paper uses the CLUE-S model, taking Huxian County in Xi’an as the study area, firstly, this paper uses the change data of land use in 2009-2013 years, using statistical methods and GIS technology, analyses were conducted on the change characteristics of land use in Huxian 2009-2013 years; secondly, using grey dynamic GM(1, 1) model to predict the 2020 land use demand of Huxian, and test the prediction accuracy of this method; at the same time, this paper selects 11 kinds of driving factors, based on different scales, using Logistic regression model to conduct the regression analysis for the 2009 various land use types and the driving factors, and testing the regression results by ROC to get the best simulation scale; finally, Completing the relevant documents of the model based on the data of land use change of 2009, using CLUE-S model to simulate and debugg the spatial pattern of land use in Huxian in 2013, we will obtain the best model parameters, using Kappa index to test the simulation results. On this basis, this paper constructs the Huxian 2020 land use changes of the natural scene, scene of cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios, and combines with 2020 the land use demand to simulate and predict the different scenarios. Through the analysis and comparison for the simulation results, this paper puts forward land use optimization scenario and offers relevant proposals for the future land use development.The results show that: the different scenarios were the future land use spatial pattern produced a certain role in the regulation and control, however, the single restriction or control can not achieve the optimization of land use structure, only based on the needs of the target and limited the various protected areas, it can achieve the rational allocation of land use structure and provide decision-making for the implementation process of land use planning. Land use optimization scenario just combine the above two requirements, and correct the problems appeared in the amorous scene simulation process, through the scenario simulation and found the simulation results and the actual planning data into higher similarity and the land use types have been more reasonable distribution no matter in quantity and layout, in the formulation of land use planning, we use amorous scene simulation by the model, to further explore the more reasonable allocation scheme,it is a feasible and effective way.