The Simulation Of Land Use Change Based On CLUE-S Model At County Level

With rapid economic and social development,some regions are suffering slow economic development and unreasonable land use for the ecological,agricultural and urban spaces due to resource depletion and unitary industrial structure.During China's new normal,development strategies with their strengths is an inevitable trend towards sustainable development.Therefore,it is practical significance for such areas to cultivate new growth drivers through spatial optimization and to form a reasonable spatial pattern of the ecological,agricultural,and urban spaces.This thesis took Kenli District of Dongying City,Shandong Province,as the research area.Firstly,land use data was extracted from high-resolution remote sensing images in 2013,2015 and 2017 respectively with object-oriented image analysis techniques.Secondly,the trends and characteristics of land-use change from 2013-2017 was analyzed,and the logistic regression model was used to analyze the natural and socio-economic drivers of land-use change.Finally,the CLUE-S model was validated by using 2013 data to simulate land use in 2015 and 2017.Based on the land-use data of 2017 and the land demand forecasted by the GM(1,1)model,the land-use data of 2025 were simulated and predicted under three development scenarios of conventional development,urban-rural integration,and protection priority based on the CLUE-S model.Then some suggestions for the future development of Kenli were put forward by comparing and analyzing the land-use information under the three scenarios.The main conclusions were as follows:(1)Based on the high-resolution remote sensing images of 2013,2015 and 2017,e Cognition Developer was used to segment the remote sensing images at a proper scale.Suitable samples were selected and the nearest neighbor classification method was applied to extract the land use data of 2013,2015 and 2017.The classification accuracy was satisfactory by the accuracy validation.The study area has a large proportion of arable land and water area,a small proportion of construction land and adequate backup resources of unused land.(2)Land-use change trends within 2013-2017 were analyzed by land use transfer matrix and land use transfer rates.It was found that the large area of new arable land came mainly from unused land,garden and forest land.Unused land was transferred to other land types by land development and its transfer rate was relatively high.The change in land types such as construction land and water area was relatively low.The Logistic regression model was applied to analyze the drivers of land-use change,including elevation,distance from the water system,population,GDP,distance from the road,distance from the settlement,distance from the city center.The resulting ROC curves(AUC)are greater than 0.7,indicating that the selected driving factors can reflect the land-use change patterns in study area.(3)The CLUE-S model was used to identify the validity of the simulation which used the land use data in 2013 as the basis and 2015,2017 as the target year.Then,based on the land use data in 2017,the land-use data in 2025 were simulated and predicted under three development scenarios including conventional development,urban-rural integration development,and protection prioritized development.And the changes and differences in spatial pattern were analyzed and compared.Under the conventional development scenario,growth is slower,mainly in the agricultural area.Under the urban-rural integration development scenario,various types of land,especially farmland and construction land,were more concentrated and regularized with a more rational and integrated spatial pattern of land use.Under the protection prioritized development scenario,land-use change was similar to the land use of conventional development scenario,suggesting that the ecological conservation policy in Kenli District was being implemented effectively in recent stage.According to the results of the study,the urban-rural integration development mode is more suitable for the future development of Kenli District,under the premise of protection,to give full play to its advantages and promote high-quality development.