Research On Assessment Methods Of Earthquake-caused Indirect Economic Loss

In China, after an earthquake disaster happens, government organizations pay their attention mainly on casualty statistics and the assessment of direct economic loss while the significance of the assessment of indirect economic loss was underestimated. If government organizations can pay more attention on the assessment of indirect economic loss, disaster prevention, disaster relief and the reconstruction work afterward will be more efficiently guided. In China, research on the assessment method of indirect economic loss is still in its infancy. There are many problems in the present assessment method such as the ambiguous definition of indirect economic loss of earthquake disaster and the low operability problem. In this paper, through systemic summarization of the research results of the assessment method of indirect economic loss of earthquake disaster both at home and abroad, traditional input-output model was analyzed and refined. Then, by applying to WenChuan Earthquake, this model was proven efficient.Research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)The definition of indirect economic loss of earthquake disaster was studied and its range was redefined. In this paper, considering the ambiguous definition of indirect economic loss of earthquake disaster problem of many other researches, an original definition method was proposed. In the definition method, the cost of disaster relief of an earthquake disaster was not considered as indirect economic loss. The gross indirect economic loss of the production department in disaster areas caused by earthquake disaster only contains off-line loss and interindustry loss.(2) Traditional input-output model was refined. Input-output model was chosen because it has a better operability and its parameters are easily got. However, input-output model considers direct economic loss as final goods loss while intermediate goods loss is ignored. In this paper, the range of direct economic loss was defined at gross goods loss. Moreover, off-line loss and interindustry loss of different production departments were respectively assessed.(3) The efficiency and scientificity of the refined input-output model was verified through applying it to WenChuan earthquake. Both traditional input-output model and refined input-output model were used to assess the indirect economic loss caused by WenChuan earthquake to the economic departments of Sichuan province. According to comparative analysis, the refined input-output model is more scientific and more operable. The refined input-output model is more accurate than the traditional input-output model. Moreover, refined distribution coefficient method is more scientific compared with refined consumption coefficient method.On the basis of the redefinition of the range of indirect economic loss, the traditional input-output assessment model was refined. Accuracy of the model was enhanced. Also, the off-line loss and interindustry loss can be obtained respectively which will provide reference and suggestions for the assessment of indirect economic loss of earthquake disaster of China.