The Research Of Assessing Indirect-Economic Losses Of Tropical Cyclone Disaster Over Jiangsu Province In2008

In today’s society, economic systems are complex and variable and the extreme weather occurrence frequently. A number of high-impact Meteorological disasters inconvenience to the residents, and cause serious economic losses to society. Economic losses caused by meteorological disasters include both direct and indirect economic losses; scholars have found that sometimes the indirect economic losses were more than the direct economic losses. But for now there is no accepted research method to assess the indirect economic losses which was brought by meteorological disasters. This paper is based on input-output and the multiplier principle; take the tropical cyclone as an example, to assess the indirect economic losses and multiplier effect, which has good theoretical and practical significance.Jiangsu Province nears the Yellow Sea and located in the center of eastern coast of China, it is with large population and complex industrial structure, which is one of China’s developed coastal areas. Due to its’ special geographical location, Jiangsu Province is subjected to the influence of tropical cyclone disasters perennially and caused serious economic losses.In this study, the data comes from 《Yearbook of statistics of Jiangsu Province》 and 《Yearbook of meteorological disasters of China》, and assess the industry-associated indirect economic losses by tropical cyclone disasters of Jiangsu Province in2008by constructing an Input-Output model. Then based on the multiplier principle to calculate the compensation multiplier, the national income multiplier and the employment multiplier, combined these multiplier with the industry-associated indirect economic losses to measuring the effect of workers’ compensation and national income and employment by Tropical cyclone disasters.Under the influence of Tropical cyclone disasters of Jiangsu Province in2008, the indirect economic loss assessment of findings including:(1)The indirect economic losses are higher than the direct economic losses. Under the influence of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries industry,the direct economic losses are0.579460billion, indirect economic losses stood at1.379637billion, which is2.380901times than the former; under the direct influence of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries industry, transportation-warehousing industry and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management industry, the direct economic losses is0.696121billion, indirect economic losses stood at1.9559404billion, which is2.809769times than the former.(2)The multiplier effect of Tropical cyclone disasters is significant. Tropical cyclone disasters of Jiangsu province in2008Caused direct economic losses of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries industry is0.579460billion Yuan, the compensation of employees decreased by0.753037billion, the total reduction in national income is2.392630billion, and also caused the aggregate demand for employment decreased by43,698people.(3)There are differences in the sensitivity of the tropical cyclone disasters to different the industry. Combined the association of tropical cyclone disaster, indirect economic loss and the multiplier effect of tropical cyclone disaster, the following industries is high sensitive to the tropical cyclone disasters:Agriculture, forest, animal husbandry, fisheries;Food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry;Chemical industry; Metal smelting and rolling processing industry; General and special equipment manufacturing industry;Transportation, warehousing industry.The calculate result shows that tropical cyclone disasters caused huge economic losses which should be have people’s attention to the disasters’prevention and mitigation. Assess the indirect-economic losses of disaster has major and immediate significance, which can provide reference for developing policies of disaster prevention and mitigation.