A System Dynamics Model For Transportation Infrastructure Investment Impact Evaluation

Transportation infrastructure investment has important influence on the future regional economy development. When policy makers create a transportation infrastructure investment plan, they need an accurate forecast based on their policy assumptions in order to perform the transportation infrastructure investment impact evaluation. When an investment policy is flawed, the resulting negative social and economic impacts cannot be mitigated in a short time. Therefore there is an urgent need for a laboratory to simulate and analyze the influence of various transportation infrastructure investment plans. This research uses the system dynamics method to analyze the relationship between transportation infrastructure investment and the regional economic outcomes. The thesis focuses on analyzing the influence of transportation investment on regional GDP and employment.Transportation infrastructure investment has important influence on the future regional economy development. When policy makers create a transportation infrastructure investment plan, they need an accurate forecast based on their policy assumptions in order to perform the transportation infrastructure investment impact evaluation. When an investment policy is flawed, the resulting negative social and economic impacts cannot be mitigated in a short time. Therefore there is an urgent need for a laboratory to simulate and analyze the influence of various transportation infrastructure investment plans. This research uses the system dynamics method to analyze the relationship between transportation infrastructure investment and the regional economic outcomes. The thesis focuses on analyzing the influence of transportation investment on regional GDP and employment.The text is divided into four chapters. Chapter one elaborates on the research background including domestic and international literature reviews, research significance, a summary of the domestic and international research of transportation infrastructure investment impact on regional economies, and applications of system dynamics method in regional economic impact assessment. The second chapter systematically introduces the system dynamics method and VENS1M simulation software. The applicability of system dynamics is introduced thereafter. The establishment of system dynamics model is described in the third chapter. The model includes transportation subsystems, economic subsystems and employment subsystems. After the development of the system dynamic model, the statistical data of Liaoning province is used to complete the model calibration. With an average relative error of less than±3%, the model can be used for policy analysis experiment. In the forth chapter, a case study is conducted using the Liaoning province data to analyze different transportation investment schemes.Transportation infrastructure investment has important influence on the future regional economy development. When policy makers create a transportation infrastructure investment plan, they need an accurate forecast based on their policy assumptions in order to perform the transportation infrastructure investment impact evaluation. When an investment policy is flawed, the resulting negative social and economic impacts cannot be mitigated in a short time. Therefore there is an urgent need for a laboratory to simulate and analyze the influence of various transportation infrastructure investment plans. This research uses the system dynamics method to analyze the relationship between transportation infrastructure investment and the regional economic outcomes. The thesis focuses on analyzing the influence of transportation investment on regional GDP and employment.The text is divided into four chapters. Chapter one elaborates on the research background including domestic and international literature reviews, research significance, a summary of the domestic and international research of transportation infrastructure investment impact on regional economies, and applications of system dynamics method in regional economic impact assessment. The second chapter systematically introduces the system dynamics method and VENS1M simulation software. The applicability of system dynamics is introduced thereafter. The establishment of system dynamics model is described in the third chapter. The model includes transportation subsystems, economic subsystems and employment subsystems. After the development of the system dynamic model, the statistical data of Liaoning province is used to complete the model calibration. With an average relative error of less than±3%, the model can be used for policy analysis experiment. In the forth chapter, a case study is conducted using the Liaoning province data to analyze different transportation investment schemes.Research results show that the model proposed in this study provides a feasible method to analyze the impact of transportation infrastructure investment on economy. The model provides policy makers an effective method to compare different transportation infrastructure investment schemes so that maximum benefits can be achieved. In this research we considered the influence of the road transportation infrastructure facilities, railway transportation infrastructure, waterway transportation infrastructure, maritime transport infrastructure, ports infrastructure, pipeline transportation infrastructure and urban public transport infrastructure. The established model can not only be used in a particular area of interest, but also is applicable to any area or cities for similar analysis. In the future, the research can be further expanded to analyzing impact of the transportation infrastructure investment on environment, greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumptions.