Study On Metro AFC System Risk Management Based On System Dynamics

Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) system is important for Guangzhou metro, whichprovide a simple and fast way for passengers to travel, and help managers make decisionswith a large number of scientific basis. So the AFC system is the core part of the metrooperation system. However, there are so many risks in the operation of the AFC system, thatwe should choose a suitable analysis method. This article adopts the method of systemdynamics to carry on a detailed analysis and assessment of the subway AFC system.First of all, by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the system dynamics andtraditional methods in risk management, we point out that it is necessary and feasible to usesystem dynamics in the study of AFC system. We identify the main risk factors by theunderstanding of the AFC system of Guangzhou metro line6, and establish the riskidentification of metro AFC system feedback graph model, which contains hardware system,software system risk, environment risk, man-made risks, and the data system.Moreover, we turn the feedback loops into flow chart. And determine the boundary pointvalue by expert survey method, and then use comprehensive empowerment method tocalculate the weights of various risk factors. Based on these works, we build system dynamicsequations. We take the work environment risk and risk of the subway AFC system as anexample, by changing the risk valuation, to simulate and analysis the contact of the riskfactors.In the end of the paper, we put forward four aspects measures to control the metro AFCsystem, namely, strengthen employee training education, improve the "soft" environment ofmetro AFC system, establish perfect risk detection and warning systems, build perfect riskemergency response mechanism.The innovation of this paper is to introduce the system dynamics to AFC system, webuild a system dynamics model of AFC system, and analysis of relations between thedynamic effect of various factors, We take the work environment risk and risk of the subwayAFC system as an example, by changing the risk valuation, to simulate and analysis thecontact of the risk factors.