| With the in-depth reform of China’s investment and financing system in the field of infrastructure and public services,the PPP mode has been rapidly developed and widely used.The fundamental purpose of the PPP model is to change the traditional government investment and financing system and introduce more private capital into the government’s monopoly infrastructure and public services.Thus promoting the accelerated development of infrastructure and public service facilities.However,judging from the operation of PPP projects in recent years,the proportion of pure private capital entering large-scale infrastructure PPP projects is far lower than expected.PPP projects have the characteristics of long investment return period and low investment return rate.Coupled with the small scale of private capital and the difficulty of financing,private capitals participate in PPP projects and face greater risks.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to strengthen the identification and analysis of key risk factors encountered in the process of private capital PPP projects and to formulate corresponding risk management measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the project.Based on the perspective of private capital,this thesis uses the system dynamics method to analyze the causal relationship between PPP target risks and influencing factors,target risks and target risks,influencing factors and influencing factors,and initially draws the main types of private capital PPP projects.Risks include: economic risk,social risk,policy and legal risk,market risk,credit risk,construction risk and management risk.Based on analysis of the risk conduction relationships among all risk factors,the risk causal loop diagram that conforms to the characteristics of private capital PPP projects is established.Based on the causal loop,a risk analysis model of private capital PPP projects based on system dynamics is constructed.The risk inventory flow chart of private capital PPP projects is drawn,the weight factors are assigned to the risk factors,and the subsystem equation between each target risk is established.Finally,the risk quantification analysis model of private capital PPP project based on system dynamics is established.The validity of the model is tested.The constructed risk analysis model is applied to the wastewater treatment project of Moon Bay New District in Huichang County,Jiangxi Province.Utilizing the Vensim software to appraise risk levels of target risks,and sensitivity analysis is utilized to analyze the key factors of high-risk target risks.The risk level of the target risk in the project is targeted to the risk control strategy by analyzing the key risk factors affecting the management risk and credit risk.Finally,the proposed risk control strategy is simulated and the changes of all target risks after strategies are observed.The results show that private capital can choose risk control measures through the risk analysis results before risk control and the expected risk control effects.It is verified that the system dynamics model constructed in this thesis has practically guiding significance in risk analysis and application,and can provide decision-making basis for private capital to participate in risk analysis and management of PPP projects. |
