Research On Probability Of Ship Colliding With Bridge Out Of Control In Inland Water

Ship collision with bridge has always occurred around the world more often than we imagine. Although the technology has been present progress, the ship is equipped with facilities for the level of supervision and management of ship safety and bridge construction and management level has made great progress, but at the same time accelerating the pace of bridge construction and more construction of larger trends, and the ship large scale and the trend of faster navigation, all makes vessel hit the bridge greatly increase the probability of the accident. Therefore, the ship collision with the bridge issue has become increasingly more important to conduct research and respond to the increasing importance.In 1995, Executive Meeting of the International Navigation Association, PIANC set up a working group 19, specialized in the study of Ship Collision with Bridge. After 5 years the International Ship Bridge Collision database set up by the group show that human error was the main factor causing ship hit the bridge, the total proportion of 70%. Human factors, including crew quality, professional technical ability, work attitude and so on. In the study on the probability of Ship Collision with Bridge, it is hard to analysize these aspects quantitatively. So this article studys the probability of Ship Collision with Bridge from the perspective of the ship out of control.The ship's drift out of control directly determine whether the ship collided with the bridge and therefore the calculating of the ship's drift out of control is an important task. The ship's drift model is established by analizing movement and state of ship out of control, which obtained the drift caused by the yaw angle of the drift, wind drift, flow-induced drift of three parts. This article focuses on the drift probability distribution model due to the yaw angle. By observing the upstream single ship, downstream single ship, upstream fleet, downstream fleet passing Gongan Yangtze River Bridge, Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge, a total of eight sets of yaw angle data, and analyzing the distribution of yaw angle, the probability model of yaw angle distribution is established. Based on this probability model, the probability of the uncontrolled ship hit the bridge under the influence of air and flow is calculated with the consideration of the air and flow.This first chapter introduces the paper research background, study content. The second chapter introduces the domestic and abroad current studies, highlighting some probability models of ship collision with bridge. The third chapter establishes ship model drift out of control, and calculats the probability distribution of drift model. The forth chapter by actual ship experiments, gets the yaw angular distribution data, and analysis on the rule of the yaw angle distribution. The fifth chapter has established the probability of ship out of control impact with the bridge programming model to form visualization applications. Input the shipping information at the interface, airflow data, such as railway bridge piers the collision probability can be output.The research method and the probability model of ship out ofcontrol impact with bridge established will further improve the research of the ship impact with bridge, provides an important reference for the concerned work. It is great significant for driving the ship and the bridge design.