Study On The Risk Analysis Of Dam Safety Emergency Management Region And The Methods Of Losses Assessment

The emergency of dam has tremendous threat to people's lives and property security . Therefore, studying the risk analysis of dam emergencies and the methods of risk losses assessment has a great significance. The risk of dam emergency has much uncertainty and fuzziness under the influence of various uncertainty factors including hydrology, hydraulics, geotechnical , design-construction and human activities. It causes that dam emergency management is so difficult to work. Combined the methods of risk analysis and fuzzy mathematical theory, the thesis presents a study on the theory of dam emergency region risk assessment and study a new method of risk losses assessment based on GIS technology. The main contents are described as follows:Based on the research of dam emergency mechanism, the risk factors of typical dam emergency management region are classified to four categories, including natural disaster, catastrophic accidents, emergency management and human destruction. And dam risk factor analysis system is conceived in hierarchical network type by analyzing the risk factors detailed.Based on the study of common methods of risk analysis and fuzzy mathematical theory, a new risk assessment methodology of dam safety emergency management region is built based on selecting risk factors. The algorithm of interval judgment matrix is introduced into the methodology to solve the consistency check problem in AHP. The weight of risk factors of each layer is determined by this algorithm. The risk level of dam safety emergency management region in project is evaluated by using the methodology and the evaluation criteria is generalized. According to the criteria,the regional security situation can be evaluated. The more value-at-risk, the more insecure; the contrary, the more security. Through engineering calculation, the results is close to the actual situation, and it can be used as a reference to Operation and Management Unit.Based on the research of risk losses assessment methods of dam safety emergency, combined with the spatial information technology, a typical dam emergency, flooding once in a century, is selected to carry out the mothed of risk losses assessment. The establishment of DEM, defining the scope of flood and the loss rate of flood has been studied respectively. Combined with information collected from the project and socio-economic data of the region, the loss of life and economic losses in LuShui water conservancy hub project are calculated according to the procedures of risk losses assessment method based on GIS technology. Considering the warning time in three cases,including no WT, WT is an hour and WT is one half and an hour, the results show that the WT paly an important role in the loss of life. Meanwhile, the loss of life and economic losses results of villages and towns in studying area can be used as the reference for the regional disaster prevention and emergency rescue.