The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Of Hu Ludao Port

Nowadays,as increased emphasis is put on environmental protection,marine environment protection and researches on the frequency of ship accidents are got more attention.Many researches in accidents frequency of tanker oil spill and its simulation of spill activities have been carried out in recent years,such as the H.Schulze,American scholar,developed with the probability expression of oil spills that occurred in the scope of St.mary River,the Japanese scholar Sergey did a simulation research by particle tracking model.These calculations are relatively simple;and restricted with the data sources and historical records which lead to rough results.With the development of the world shipping industry and the increased import of crude oil by VLCC or ULCC,the potential accident risk of ship is increasing;therefore,it is essential to take special research on any accidents that may occur.The mathematical models on ships of accident-prone are separate established,the ship's accident frequency are calculated, and pointed out the strip accident-prone areas,which accident represent the highest frequency.Then the current directions are calculated,the excursions are simulated and diffusion of oil film which are based on the Princeton Ocean Model(POM),and finally give the risk acceptance matrix.By above theory and methods,the collision,drift grounding,powered grounding, fire/explosion and structural failure accidents frequency in the harbor area of Liutiaogou are calculated,but the frequency of oil spill still need further study.On this basis,first use POM to get the current field in this study area,then,the oil film track in the circumstance of an assuming oil spill accident happened in the accident-prone area are predictd and simulated.At last,combined with the frequency of ship accidents and oil spills to draw the risk acceptable matrix.