Study On Oil Spill Risk Assessment Of Petrochemical Wharf Based On An Example

With the development of petro-chemical industries, the number of oil wharfs and oil throughput increases, which lead to the incidence of oil spills more and more high, and seriously contaminate the marine living resources and marine ecology. Therefore, It is more and more important that how to making qualitative or quantitative analysis to assess oil spill risk of petrochemical project as a whole system, and based on which to make preventive measures, risk management.But the risk assessment work in our country has just started, the oil spill risk evaluation system of research and case studies also relatively less. Therefore, in order to assist and supervise the risk assessment work, it is necessary that carrying out oil spill risk assessment study as soon as possible and establishing the appropriate risk management institutions, making environmental risk evaluation index system and evaluation guidelines which could fit the characteristics of our country.Oil Spill Risk Assessment as a system has characteristics of complexity, openness and randomness. This requires studying oil spill risk assessment from the perspective of the system. This paper establishes oil spill risk assessment system from the probability of oil spill took place and the degree of damage on marine environment,and a preliminary assessment of the oil spill risk rating is studued on the Gulf Gateway Weihai Port Terminal petrochemical projects.The oil spill risk assessment is calculated by the product of two-dimensional matrix which is composed of the comprehensive possibility of contacing sensitive region (that is combined the basis probability of the oil spill and the probability of contacting the sensitive targets after the occurrence) and the rate of damage caused by oil spills. The main contents include:1.Oil spill occurred as basic probability. this paper predict the oil spill happened at 50t,100t,500t,1000t by the way of Poisson distribution, based on national statistical data and expected throughput of 20.44 million tons.2.Oil spill contacting sensitive areas as condition probability. In this paper, through "oil-particle" method setting up the Oil Spill Simulation Model ,it simulates oil spill trajectory when happenes at different points separately and kinds combination of wave and wind, and calculates the probability of contacting sensitive areas. Combinated the oil spill occurred,it calculates the comprehensive probability of impacting sensitive areas.3.The degree of damage on marine. In this paper, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is selected to predict the degrss rate of oil spills.This established fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system incldes 4 indeces,including through the of the volume of oil spills, oil characteristics, sensitivity and the ability of oil spill reponse.In this system,the various weights is analysed by AHP, and finally get the evaluation results by anti-fuzzy method.Through the above calculation, it can be concluded Weihai Port Petrochemical Terminal Oil Spill Risk Level is general. And it advise some risk prevention measures to reducing its potential environmental impacts and for provide scientific basis for project development safely and efficiently.