The Construction And Application Of Grey Forecast Model In Traffic Accident Of Beijing

This paper makes a scientific predication on the trend of traffic accident in accordance with the complexity,irregularity and obscurity of traffic accident in Beijing,making use of GM theory to establish a GM forecast system.In the paper,it first has the traffic accidents counted from the all country,including Beijing, which at the same time make the comparison with other advanced countries,summarizing the traits and regularity of traffic accidents in Beijing.Second,through the way of evaluating on prevailing forecast system,exploit a theoretical way of GM to forecast the traffic accident. Lastly,according to the basic theory and steps of construction and test devices on model precision of GM(1,1),bases on the statistics collected from 1999 to 2006 of Beijing,building GM(1,1),respectively,on number of traffic accident,death,injured and direct economic loss. In practice,the established GM(1,1) has great precision with good effect of forecasting.There are three new ideas in this paper.One is that it first forecasts the trend of traffic accident in Beijing with GM(1,1),which,until now,has no such way of doing so in records, and therefore,fill in the gaps in this field.Second,as to the problem-high precision of model,low accuracy,occurred sometimes,a rolling device of "select modelling sequence and the dimension from front to back" is applied.After practice,it turned out to be a higher precision and more accurate with such device.Third,to apply the previously stated device on the base of actual statistics of Beijing traffic accidents,establish models individually to examine them,so that to set up a comparatively better GM(1,1).With the help of GM(1,1) forecast,a conclusion can be drawn as follow:under the existing road situation,in the few coming years,both the seriousness of traffic injured and the death rate quota will keep in a high degree.Considering this forecasting result,the road and traffic management department may well prepare for the sudden happenings in advance to keep the serious effect under control.Therefore, the forecasting result of this paper can provide important data and theoretical basis for controlling Beijing traffic accidents,which will have a certain significance and practical value in enhancement of traffic management and the improvement of road safety.