The Analysis And Forecast On Traffic Accident In Gansu Based On GM (1,1) And Neural Network Models

The road traffic accidents forecasting is the important content of the research of traffic safety. The purpose of road traffic accidents forecasting is to analyze the tendency of road traffic accidents under existing road traffic conditions, evaluate the feasibility and practical effectiveness of traffic safety measures reasonably, control the factors affecting road accidents, and reduce the traffic accidents.Firstly, this paper has carried on the analysis and the safety evaluation to national and the Gansu Province road traffic accidents. Through contrasting with the nation road traffic accidents' present situation, it summarizes characteristics and rules which the Gansu Province road traffic accidents occur; Secondly, it has carried on the analysis and the appraisal to the methods of existing road traffic accidents forecasting, in view of the road traffic system's characteristics, establishing combination forecast model based on the gray metabolism GM(1,1) and the neural network, forecasting the Gansu Province road traffic accidents. The real diagnosis result indicates that this combination forecast model both can reflect succession overall trend of the road traffic accidents and to be able to catch the random fluctuation of the road traffic system, that its forecast error is small, and that the simulated precision surpasses the single gray metabolism GM(1,1) model obviously; Finally considering influencing factor of the road traffic accidents, this paper screens five important factor targets based on the gray connection analysis method from the numerous influencing factor targets, namely the urban population, the rural population, the transported goods volume, the civilian vehicle inventory and the vehicle pilot, introducing them into forecast model, establishing GM(0,5) model to further inquire into quantity relation of the road traffic accidents and each major influencing factor. The actual examination discovers the human is the crucial role in the traffic accidents.