A Study On The Maritime Traffic Accidents Of Xiamen Port And The Vicinity Navigation Area

This thesis is aimed at deepening investigation of maritime traffic safety of XIAMEN port and nearby navigation area, at sufficiently utilizing the statistical data of waterborne traffic accidents, and at improving the management level of the waterborne traffic safety. On the basis of analysis and investigation to its historical statistical data of maritime traffic accident and statistical methods, this thesis advances more scientific and reasonable methods on the statistics, analysis, and forecast of waterborne traffic accidents.At first, the ABC classification is applied to the management of the waterborne traffic safety, therefore it is convenient for the safety management department to establish different management countermeasures according to the different frequency and criticality of waterborne traffic accidents in different navigation area, shipping company, etc, and to make the best of the limited resources, in order to improve the management level of waterborne traffic safety.Secondly, applying the incidence analysis method of GREY System Theory to establish the incidence matrix of maritime accidents and its causes, in order to discover the dynamic relationship between the maritime accidents and the shipping area, watch time and its cause, etc.Thirdly, the direct expense of maritime accident forecast is carried out with the GM(l.l), through building the GM(l.l)of the expense of maritime accident, and modifying the periodicity remnant difference of the it ,in order to get a better measure in the forecast of the direct expense of maritime accident.