Analysis On Human Factors In Maritime Traffic Accident Based On CREAM

With the automatic and intelligent development of ship, it is weaker for navigational environment and facility-equipment to influence the navigation safety, but the influence of human error becomes increasingly prominent. Recently, JINDO, a South Korean passenger ship, sank with281persons dead and23persons missing. The reasons of preliminary analysis are temporary changing course, unreliable loading and securing. According to statistics,80%of the maritime traffic accidents are related to human factors, therefore, the study of human error and its influencing factors is beneficial to reduce the probability of human error and enhance navigation safety of ship.Traditional analysis and prediction for the maritime traffic accidents is more around people, ship, environment and management. Although all of the index factors are considered, ignore the dominant human factors. Therefore, this article will take human factors as a starting point and explore the mechanism of human error. Around this starting point, firstly the article analyzes the general situation of maritime traffic accidents, discusses related conception of human error, obtains the influencing factors of human error in maritime traffic accidents, and lays the foundation for the trace analysis below; Secondly, according to the existing human error model, and combining the condition of maritime traffic accidents, establish human error model of maritime traffic accidents; Finally, comparing the existing human reliability analysis method, introduce the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) into the analysis of human error in maritime traffic accidents. By means of establishing error model, category table of antecedents, retrospective table of antecedent-consequence, trace-analyze the root causes of human error, and through the form of questionnaires, get effect influence index and use the extension method to quantitatively forecast the probability of human error.Using the method of CREAM to trace-analyze the "Da Shun" accidents, the results of the analysis is basically the same to the accident investigation report, proving that method of CREAM is available in the analysis of human error in maritime traffic accidents; At the same time, from the perspective of human cognitive behavior process, quantitatively forecast "Da Shun" accidents, figure out the probability of human error. For human error that error probability is larger, combining with the root cause of trace-analysis, take corresponding measures to avoid the occurrence of similar incidents.