| With the rapid development of national economy, construction scale expanded unceasingly, construction safety accident also occurred frequently, the accident rate after motor vehicle and mining industry. Therefore, it is very important practical significance to forecast construction accident scientifically and reasonably.This paper takes construction safety accidents as the research object. Firstly, it introduced in the construction accident development present situation. Secondly, it analyzed the main construction accidents which affect construction accident deaths quantitatively, combined with grey system theory, and worked out the grey correlation of the main construction accident by the grey relational analysis, geted the main influence deaths accident factor is falling and collapses, followed by mechanical damage, objects blow, and other factors. Thirdly, it established construction safety accident GM (1,1) prediction model by using grey forecast method, and also discussed the grey model establishment,inspection and parameter of solving etc, it is concluded that our construction accident development situation in the future years. Our building construction accident declined over the next three years, but the change is little, the construction accident security situation is still severe.In addition, this paper also studied the improved GM (1,1) model tentatively through the power function conversion, and compared with the original prediction model, it is known that improved model properly can make the model prediction accuracy improved. Finally, it gave the MATLAB algorithm of construction safety accident grey prediction.The research results from this paper can help people to make construction accident prevention plan in advance, provide decision-making basis for formulating building security policy and reducing accidents loss, and in favour of enhancing the safety production level in construction industry furtherly.Figures [11] Tables [13] References [58]... |
PDF Full Text Request