Climatic Variations Background For Historical Rise And Fall Of Dynasty

2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature in Beijing(Tan M et al. 2003) Has been established by the comparison of different records from historical documents and other proxy climate records. It show that during past 2 000 years the entire change trend of temperature is downward, but most of the time it was as warm as present, in the decade to century scale we can detected several quick and short cold/warm epoch. During past 2 000 years (220BC~1985AD) we can detected out six cold periods, while research shows that the six cold periods is also the periods that transformation of rise/fall epoch of Dynasty.(1)212~163BC, the cold period, the end of Qin. Temperature began to decline, decreasing about 1℃from 210 BC to 163 BC. In the end of Qin Dynasty, agriculture production declined, large population left their home because hazards and war, lots of peasants uprising explored. The cold climate ended the rule of Qin Dynasty.(2)200~230AD, the cold period, end of the Eastern Han Dynasty. When the temperature declined in 212 AD, the northern desert began to expand, agriculture boundary moved south. Farming industry, the economic center gradually shifted from the Yellow River Basin to the Yangtze River basin.(3)490~520AD, the Southern-Northern Dynasty cold period. The Southern-Northern Dynasty air temperature started to drop. Agriculture boundary moved south, the Northern Wei capital began to frequent move south in response to climate change. Population moved south, the Yellow River Basin population proportion dropped to 60% from 80%.(4) 710~750AD, 780 ~ 860AD, the end of Tang cold period. The first cold period is short, but it had caused a serious impact in agriculture industry, a large number of population migrated from north to south, 755AD, the outbreak of the "Rebellion." After a brief warm period, 780AD, temperature began to fall into a more cold and long period. After two consecutive cold events, the population of China reached the North-South balance for the first time, and it ended the rule of the Tang Dynasty.(5)1450~1620AD, the medium-Ming Dynasty cold period. The heavy meteorological disasters increased rapidly from medium-Ming Dynasty, disasters became very frequent and serious. Agriculture production declined, the population moved to the Qinling Mountains, Sichuan, western Hubei and Fujian and other mountain areas, Decades of continued drought destroyed Ming Dynasty.In the millennial scale, the population centers gradually shifted from the high latitudes to low latitudes as the temperature dropped. Political, economic and cultural center was gradually shifted from Yellow River Basin to Yangtze River basin. In the decade to century scale agriculture contract south boundary and animal husbandry expand south in temperature rapid decline phase. Conversely animal husbandry contract north and agriculture expand north boundary in temperature rapid increase phase.