Growth Curve Fitting And Profit And Loss Analysis Modern Animal Husbandry Sheep

As one of the major industries in China,animal husbandry is facing many problems.As a big country of animal husbandry in China,it is particularly important to guide the traditional animal husbandry to change towards multi-level and modern direction and meet the diversified demands of consumers for agricultural and animal products.However,due to the low educational level of herdsmen,the methods of herdsmen grazing and selling sheep are not scientific.On the one hand,according to their years of breeding experience,on the other hand,they sell sheep at will.The result is desertification and degradation of grassland,and the economic benefits of herdsmen are economically efficient.Therefore,it is urgent to put forward a more accurate method for weight prediction,and establish a profit and loss analysis model combined with price prediction to guide the production,sales and profit maximization of farmers.This paper mainly designed and analyzed the growth model,price forecast,profit and loss analysis model,data exchange interface and dynamic visualization interface.The specific work contents were as follows:Firstly,the growth and development of Sunite sheep,the relationship between meteorological factors and monthly gain of Sunite sheep,and the growth model were studied.The results showed that the growth of Sunit sheep was faster during the period of3 to 5 months,and the growth rate was slower after 6 months.In the grey correlation analysis,the main meteorological factors affecting the weight change of Sunite sheep were wind speed,followed by precipitation and temperature.In the selection and verification of growth model,all models(except Logistic_linear)had a good fitting effect on the growth and development of Sunit sheep,and R~2 is above 0.97.However,the improved model Logistic_exp with meteorological factors,R~2 is 0.999,and the fitting effect is the best.And according to the data verification results in 2012,the estimated value of the Logistic_exp model is the closest to the actual value,the error is smaller,the accuracy is higher,and the fitting degree is higher.Secondly,Price forecasting and profit and loss analysis modeling.Firstly,the basic concepts of time series,exponential smoothing model,ARIMA model and model evaluation index were discussed.Secondly,ARIMA model and exponential smoothing model are used to predict mutton price.The results show that in all models,the winter additive model R~2 was the largest,0.96,and the other error indicators RMSE,MAPE,MAE were the smallest,which was the best prediction model.Finally,the profit and loss analysis model was built to analyze the breeding cost,net profit and other indicators.The results showed that the sale of sheep in August was the most profitable,which was the best time to sell.Finally,Data exchange interface and dynamic visual interface were designed.Firstly,the design structure of database table was given.Secondly,the interface of data sharing was designed.Finally,different input windows are provided according to the actual needs of farmers to realize real-time dynamic calculation of cost and net profit.