Study On Risks Of China’s Barley Import Trade

For a long time,China has always regarded ensuring food security as the top priority for governing the country.In 2021 and 2022,the No.1 central document once again stressed the need to further enhance the effective supply capacity of grain and important agricultural products and effectively ensure national food security.Under the condition of limited resource endowment,China will make good use of both domestic and foreign markets and resources as an important starting point to achieve "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety in rations".On the one hand,the limited domestic resources should be put into the production of major agricultural products such as staple grains;On the other hand,we will guide barley,sorghum and other cereals to rely more on the international agricultural product market for protection.According to FAO statistics,since China began importing barley in the 1960 s,the barley trade has been in a net import state.With the development of China’s social economy,the feed consumption demand and processing consumption demand of China’s barley are growing rapidly,and the dependence on barley imports is rising,reaching 89.98% by 2020.From the perspective of actual demand and policy orientation,the international market will still be an important support to meet domestic barley consumption demand in the future.It is worth noting that although international trade can effectively reconcile the contradiction between domestic supply and demand and alleviate the pressure on domestic production,it is also easy to expose the country to trade risks such as "expensive to buy" and "unable to buy".In particular,China’s barley is highly dependent on foreign countries and its import sources are highly concentrated.Fluctuations in the international barley market are likely to affect the stability of the domestic barley market supply.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to sort out the current situation of China’s barley import trade,scientifically evaluate trade risks,and put forward targeted policy recommendations for better ensuring the supply of domestic barley market.Unlike previous studies focusing on protecting the domestic barley industry,this study is based on the perspective of making better use of the international barley market,comprehensively and systematically evaluating the risk of China’s barley import trade,and putting forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the basis of analyzing the feasibility and effect of relevant countermeasures.The price risk of China’s barley import trade is evaluated by measuring the change of import price caused by the change of barley import quantity;Based on the perspective of market power,this paper uses G-K model to analyze the causes of barley import price risk in China from both theoretical and empirical aspects.The HP filter method is used to measure the deviation between China’s barley import volume and the import trend value,and to evaluate the quantitative risk faced by China’s barley import trade;Based on the perspective that the actual import volume and the change of import trend value tend to be different(the same),the constant market share model(CMS)is used to decompose the change of actual import volume,and explore the causes of barley import quantity risk.Based on the partial equilibrium theory,a model of China’s barley import trade is constructed to simulate the changes of China’s barley industry under the impact of tariff policy adjustment and extreme natural disasters,so as to simulate the potential risks faced by China’s barley import trade.Finally,this paper analyzes the feasibility of developing domestic barley industry and expanding import source channels,and simulates its effect with the help of local equilibrium model.Based on the above analysis,the main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)China’s barley supply is highly dependent on the international market for a long time.China’s barley supply continued to decline,while feed consumption demand and processing consumption demand grew rapidly;China’s barley is highly dependent on foreign countries,the import sources are relatively concentrated,and the import prices show obvious fluctuations.(2)China’s barley import trade faces a small price risk,and the current situation of insufficient domestic production is the main factor causing the price risk.The results show that 18.18% of the samples have the situation that "China’s barley import price increases significantly with the increase of import volume",and the barley import trade faces little price risk;The market power of China’s barley import trade shows that it is difficult for Australia,Canada and France to significantly push up China’s barley import price by controlling barley export volume;The rapid growth of China’s barley consumption demand and the serious shortage of domestic production are the main reasons for the sharp rise in barley import prices.(3)China’s barley import trade faces certain import quantity risk,which is the result of the joint action of various factors at home and abroad.The results show that 61.54% of the samples have "significant deviation of China’s actual barley import from the long-term trend value",and the occurrence frequency continues to accelerate and the deviation range continues to expand.China’s barley import trade faces certain quantitative risks;The decomposition results of CMS model show that the scale effect,structure effect,gravity effect and the rapid growth of China’s barley consumption demand are the important reasons for the import quantity risk.(4)The adjustment of tariff policy caused by China-Australian trade friction has a great impact on China’s barley import trade.Compared to the base scenario,after imposing a tariff of 80.50% on Australian barley,China’s total barley imports will decrease by 6.18%,import prices will increase by 10.75%,and barley consumption will decrease by 5.50%;If China Australia trade relations improve,the tariff will be reduced to 30%,China’s total barley import will decrease by 3.17%,the import price will increase by 4.87%,and the barley consumption will decrease by 2.82%;If China Australia trade relations deteriorate and tariffs rise to 130%,China’s total barley imports will fall by 7.87%,import prices will rise by 13.93%,and barley consumption will fall by 7.01%.(5)Extreme natural disasters will aggravate the risk of China’s barley import trade.The extreme natural disasters will reduce the barley output of France and Canada by 7.95% and 18.36% respectively.Compared with the basic scenario,the total barley import volume of China will decrease by 9.77% and 9.35% respectively,and the weighted average barley import price will increase by 12.10% and 11.86% respectively.(6)China can cope with trade risks by expanding barley planting area,improving planting efficiency and implementing diversified import strategies.Improving barley planting quality and cultivating emerging business entities can promote the development of domestic barley industry to a certain extent,but the simulation results show that the cost of developing domestic barley industry to deal with trade risks is large;China has a large space to broaden its import sources.The implementation of diversified import strategy can effectively fill the barley import gap and reduce the import price;At the same time,the barley production potential of Russia,Argentina and other countries can provide strong support for China to expand barley import sources in the long term,but may face relatively high production costs.According to the above conclusions,this study puts forward the following policy suggestions:first,expand import sources and improve the regulation policy of barley import trade.On the basis of stabilizing the original import source countries,actively expand new barley trade partners,especially strengthen trade exchanges with countries with great barley production potential;Second,establish and improve the monitoring and early warning system of barley market and improve the ability of trade negotiation.Establish a monitoring and early warning system for barley price and production cost at home and abroad,and strengthen the prediction and analysis of production market,production and marketing situation and market price;Third,take multiple measures to improve domestic barley production capacity.Actively cultivate new agricultural business entities,vigorously develop contract agriculture,establish a "barley industry system + enterprise" alliance,and focus on targeted supply.