Research On The Impact Of Barley Import On Barley Industry Of China

With the rapid development of China's economy and the improvement of people's income level,the dietary consumption structure of residents has been changing,and the consumption of meat,eggs,milk and beer has been increasing rapidly.As the good feed and the main raw material of processing beer,barley consumption has been increasing rigidly,but China's barley production did not increase with the rapid increase of demand,and domestic supply appeared apparent inadequacy.At the same time,barley import increased significantly,which seriously impacted domestic barley market.The domestic barley price sharply dropped and the scale of barley production severely reduced.Due to the large increase of barley import,and domestic industry suffered serious damaged,the ministry of commerce of China initiated anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation against imported barley from Australia in November and December 2018 to relieve China's barley industry and ensure its security.Therefore,it is of great significance to prevent the negative effects of barley import by analyzing the impact of barley import on domestic barley industry and clarifing the specific impact situation.It can provide some references for the formulation and improvement of national policies such as barley import trade,domestic industrial development and so on.Based on the theories of market supply and demand,price transmission and partial equilibrium,this paper applied survey method,statistical analysis and econometric analysis methods to firstly analyze the status of barley import trade,the international competitiveness of barley industry and its influencing factors,and then further analyzed the reasons for the import increase of barley.Secondly,on the basis of describing and analyzing the impact of barley import on domestic barley industry,this paper empirically studied the influence degree of barley import on domestic barley market price and production by constructing vector autoregression model and applying impulse response function and variance decomposition.Thirdly,the paper evaluated and analyzed the import dependence risk of barley by measuring the import dependence index.Finally,this paper applied China agricultural sector model to analyze the impact of barley import tariff policy adjustment on domestic barley price,production,consumption and import by constructing the model framework of barley market supply and demand,and setting up different scenario simularion programs of barley import tariff increase.The research results showed that the fundamental reason for barley import increase was the lack of international competitiveness.It is difficult to resist import barley impact.The main factors affecting the international competitiveness of the barley industry are higher production costs,uncompetitive prices,the quality not to meet processing requirements,and low import tariffs.Barley import had a serious impact and damage to the domestic industry.First of all,the import price of barley had a significant transmission influence on the domestic price of barley with the maximum influence degree of 18.11%.The import volume of barley had a significant negative influence on the domestic barley price with the maximum influence degree of 20.43%.Secondly,the import volume of barley had a significant extrusion influence on the domestic barley production with the maximum influence degree of 7.11%.The large number of low priced imported barley squeezed the domestic barley market space to result the decline in domestic barley market demand and the continuous decline in domestic barley price.Farmers' planting enthusiasm reduced,barley planting areas reduced significantly and production continuously reduced.There existed import dependence risk.Barley import concentration was very high,and import dependence increased significantly.The self-sufficiency of barley dropped sharply,which weakened industry control and threatened the safe development of barley industry.The policy adjustment of barley import tariff had an impotrant influence on domestic barley industry.Australia is the largest source country of China's barley import,under the China-Australia free trade agreement,the zero tariff of barley import as a reference,if the tariff increased to 3%,12%,and 20% respectively,the feed consumption demand of barley would decrease 3.50%,12.29%,and 16.77%,which would have a significant influence on feed demand of domestic barley.The domestic barley price would increase 2.89%,11.54%,and 19.23%,the planting area would increase 0.43%,1.64%,and 2.48%,and the total production would increase 1.00%,3.86%,and 5.88% respectively,which would play certain protection effect on the domestic barley industry.The net import volume of barley would decrease 2.20%,7.82%,and 10.84% respectively,which would play certain trade protection and trade relief effect.Based on the above research conclusions,some policy suggestions were put forward to ensure sustainable development of barley industry such as moderating import barley to reduce import impact,promoting barley import sources diversification to reduce import dependence risk,strengthening domestic policy support and protection to improve the domestic comprehensive production capacity,and increasing scientific and technological input to enhance barley international competitiveness.