| After the Second World War,the development of new and high-tech has had a significant impact on the world’s economic and social progress.The development of new and high-tech industry has become a strategic commanding point in the world economic and technological competition,and also an important embodiment of national competitive advantage.In the 1950s,the Silicon Valley Science Park in the United States achieved great success in the development of high-tech industry,which made the high-tech industrial development zone,a new form of economic and technological development,quickly copied in the world.In the 1980s,China set up the first national high-tech industrial development zone(hereinafter referred to as the "National high-tech zones")Zhongguancun Science Park.After more than 30 years of rapid development,the number and size of National high-tech zones have achieved tremendous growth.National high-tech zones have become the heights of innovation,industry,talent and opening-up,and contribute greatly to the constant innovation of science and technology and the rapid growth of economy.The 19th CPC National Congress set out on a new journey to comprehensively build a modern socialist country,set the ambitious goal of building an innovative country and a world power in science and technology,and set the major proposition of high-quality development.As an important part of the national science and technology innovation system and the regional innovation heights,the realization of the high quality development of the national high-tech zones will be a good model leading and radiation driving for the high quality development of our economy and science and technology.In 2020,The State Council clearly proposed in "Several Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of National High-tech Industrial Development Zones" that"National high-tech zones should be built into innovation-driven development demonstration zones and high-quality development pilot zones",and stressed that national high-tech zones should "strengthen top-level design,optimize the overall layout,strengthen the role of demonstration and driving,and promote coordinated and sustainable regional development".However,as the national high-tech zones enter a new stage of high-quality development,there are still some problems and challenges.First,the development status of national high-tech zones varies greatly among different regions,with unbalanced regional layout and large scale differences among parks.Second,the industrial homogeneity of national high-tech zones is serious and the coordinated development is not effective.Third,small and medium-sized national high-tech zones,especially those newly upgraded ones,lack momentum for development.In this context,this study attempts to explore and analyze the following core issues,with a view to contributing to the layout optimization and coordinated and sustainable growth of national high-tech zones:First,is the size distribution of the national high-tech zone system reasonable?With the rapid growth of the number and size of national high-tech zones,has the size distribution changed?What is the formation mechanism of system size distribution?Second,what rules should the hierarchical structure of the national high-tech zone system meet?Is there any connection between national high-tech zones within the system?If there is a connection,what kind?Third,does the size growth of national high-tech zones have regularity?If so,what is the pattern?How to ensure the sustainable growth of high-tech zones in small and medium-sized countries,especially in newly upgraded countries?Therefore,this paper starts from the organizational structure of the national high-tech zones system,takes the number of employees in national high-tech zones as the representation index of the size of national high-tech zones,analyzes the size distribution characteristics of national high-tech zones and the evolution law over time by using Zipf s law with universal applicability,and divides China into three regions,and analyzes the law characteristics of each region.The formation mechanism of size distribution of national high-tech zones is analyzed by means of parametric regression and non-parametric regression using Gibrat’s law.Secondly,taking the national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta as an example,this paper analyzes the hierarchical structure of the national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta using the "rank-size"rule,calculates the central functional strength of the national high-tech zones according to the data of the number of employees in each high-tech zone,business income,personnel with college degree or above and technical income,etc.,and classifies the national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta.On this basis,the Moran’s I index is used to analyze the spatial correlation of national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta,and the economic connection quantity model is used to estimate the specific economic connection quantity and economic membership degree of national high-tech zones at different levels.Finally,this article reviews the definition of high-tech zones by various countries and international organizations in the world and our country for the related policy documents for the construction of national high-tech zones.On the basis of accurately understanding the definition and policy documents mentioned above,then sum up the necessary conditions for establishing national high-tech zones.According to these conditions and the own characteristics of national high-tech zones and the related research at home and abroad,The factors influencing the sustainable growth of national high-tech zones are summarized.According to the number growth curve of national high-tech zones,the growth model of national high-tech zones is established and the influence of these factors on the sustainable growth of national high-tech zones is tested empirically.The main conclusions are as follows:First,on the whole,the size distribution of national high-tech zones does not conform to Zipf’s law.In 1998,the system was more uniform than Zipf’s law described,and in 2011 and 2018,it was more dispersed than Zipf s law described.With the passage of time,the size difference of national high-tech zones is expanding.As the first national high-tech zone,Zhongguancun Science Park grows rapidly,and the primacy index of the system is approaching the theoretical value.From the perspective of subregion,the size distribution of the eastern,central and western regions did not conform to Zipf’s law.During the investigation period,the Pareto index of the eastern region was all less than 1,and the system size distribution was more dispersed.In the central and western regions,it was more than 1 in 1998,2011 and 2018.Over time,differences in the size of national high-tech zones within regions have also widened.From the perspective of the formation mechanism of the system rule characteristics,the reasons for the increase of differences in the system of national high-tech zones are the fast growth of large and small national high-tech zones,slow growth of medium-sized national high-tech zones,and small scale of newly upgraded national high-tech zones.Second,the system of national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta conforms to the rank-size distribution,and the distribution tends to be differentiated over time.As the first national high-tech zone in the Yangtze River Delta region,the size of Shanghai High-tech Zone keeps growing,and the size gap between it and other national high-tech zones in the region is increasing,and the system imbalance is obvious.The functions of national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta are significantly different,the central function index of national high-tech zones is very different,and the number of high-grade national high-tech zones is small.The spatial autocorrelation method is used to analyze the spatial agglomeration of national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta.It is found that the economic agglomeration is not significant in the overall scope,and the pattern of national high-tech zones in the whole Yangtze River Delta is relatively stable.The economic radiation of high-level central high-tech zones has obvious administrative boundary,and the administrative boundary has obvious influence on the economic radiation range of national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta.Thirdly,the growth model of national high-tech zones is constructed based on the growth curve of the number of national high-tech zones.By using the relevant data of national high-tech zones,IT is found that the more colleges and universities in the cities where national high-tech zones are located,the richer the types of leading industries established in the new millennium,and the IT industry is included in the leading industries,the higher the average annual employment growth rate of national high-tech zones will be.The distance between national high-tech zones and universities and the administrative level of the city where they are located have no significant influence on the scale growth of national high-tech zones.According to the regression results,the average annual growth rate of employees in national high-tech zones and the average annual growth rate of employees with junior college or above are 10.07%and 13.86%,respectively.The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,from the perspective of size distribution,the organizational structure,evolution law and formation mechanism of the national high-tech zone system are deeply studied.In-depth analysis of the organizational structure of national high-tech zones is helpful to correctly analyze the internal differences of national high-tech zones and optimize the allocation of innovation resources.The existing literature mainly studies the organizational structure of national high-tech zones from the macro level with qualitative and statistical methods,and holds that the spatial distribution of national high-tech zones is unbalanced and the size difference between the parks is large.In this paper,Zipf s law,which is universal,is used to analyze the organizational structure of the national high-tech zone system and its evolution over time from the perspective of size distribution by quantitative research method,and Gibrat’s law is used to explore the formation mechanism of the system distribution characteristics.Second,the "Rank-Size" rule and the central function intensity model are used to classify the countries,and the Moran index and the membership degree model of economic relations are used to explore the correlation between different levels of national high-tech zones.An in-depth study of the hierarchical structure and spatial correlation of the national high-tech zone system is of great significance for identifying the development stage and cooperation status of the national high-tech zone system,guiding the coordinated development of national high-tech zones,building a regional scientific and technological innovation community,and promoting the construction of national independent innovation demonstration zones.At present,there are few quantitative researches on the coordinated development of national high-tech zones.Existing researches mainly use the method of social network to study the spatial correlation network characteristics of national high-tech zones,and find that the network correlation degree of national high-tech zones is not high,and the economic connection needs to be strengthened.Existing studies have been unable to identify the development stage of the national high-tech zones system,the characteristics of spatial agglomeration and the degree of economic subordination among national high-tech zones.Based on previous studies,this paper takes the national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta as an example,uses the "Rank-Size" rule to explore and identify the development stages of the national high-tech zones system in the Yangtze River Delta,grades the national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta with the help of the central functional strength model,and analyzes the agglomeration characteristics of national high-tech zones in the Yangtze River Delta with the Moreland Index.Finally,the membership degree model of economic connection is used to explore the specific degree of economic connection between different levels of national high-tech zones.Thirdly,according to the growth curve of national high-tech zones,the growth model of national high-tech zones is constructed,and the universal factors affecting the sustainable growth of national high-tech zones are explored.To ensure the sustainable growth of the newly upgraded national high-tech zones is a prerequisite for realizing the sustainable growth and high-quality development of the national high-tech zone system.Previous studies on influencing factors of economic growth of national high-tech zones mainly focus on innovation factors such as scientific and technological input and human resources,as well as basic factors such as economic foundation and transportation conditions of the regions where national high-tech zones are located.However,some national high-tech zones,especially the newly upgraded national high-tech zones,lack innovation resources and have backward urban basic conditions,so their sustainable growth faces severe challenges.Based on the existing research,this paper constructs the growth model of national high-tech zones according to the growth curve of national high-tech zones.By analyzing the definition of national high-tech zones in different countries and organizations,and according to the characteristics of national high-tech zones,it summarizes the universal factors affecting the development of national high-tech zones.From the relationship between national high-tech zones and universities and the choice of leading industries,this paper explores the factors that influence the sustainable growth of national high-tech zones. |
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